For the third time all season, the Chicago White Sox (57-94) find themselves favored in a baseball game. After 151 games of being underdogs, we’re -129 favorites against the Baltimore Orioles (70-80) Tuesday night at Guaranteed Rate Field. Sometimes you have to celebrate the small victories in a season like this one.
Game Details and Viewing Information
When: Tuesday, September 16, 2025 at 7:40 PM ET
Where: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago
TV: Chicago Sports Network (CHSN) and Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN2)
Betting Lines Show Rare Sox Respect
The oddsmakers actually believe in us tonight:
- White Sox Moneyline: -129
- Orioles Moneyline: +108
- Run Line: White Sox -1.5
- Total Runs: 8.0
Being favored at -129 is foreign territory for us this season. We’ve only been favorites twice before (splitting those games 1-1), so this represents uncharted waters. The books clearly respect Shane Smith’s recent form and our home field advantage.
Pitching Matchup: Smith vs. Kremer
White Sox: Shane Smith (6-7, 3.78 ERA) makes his 27th start with 122 strikeouts
Orioles: Dean Kremer (9-10) takes the mound for his 28th start, listed as day-to-day with forearm issues
This matchup gives us legitimate reasons for optimism. Smith has been quietly solid all season with that 3.78 ERA, providing the kind of consistent innings that keep games competitive. His 122 strikeouts in 131⅔ innings show he can miss bats when needed.
Kremer brings a concerning injury situation – forearm problems for pitchers are never something to take lightly. Even if he starts, will he be at full strength? That uncertainty could work in our favor against a pitcher we might not see deep into the game.
Two Underwhelming Offenses: Slight Edge to Baltimore
The Numbers: We rank 26th in runs per game (4.0) while Baltimore ranks 23rd (4.3). Neither team has been able to generate consistent offense, but they have a slight statistical advantage and some players heating up at the right time.
Our Contributors:
- Lenyn Sosa: Team leader with .260 average, 20 home runs, and 68 RBIs – our most consistent threat
- Chase Meidroth: Young talent with 109 hits and excellent plate discipline (.347 OBP)
- Andrew Benintendi: Veteran steadiness with 100 hits and solid production
- Miguel Vargas: Power potential with 107 hits despite inconsistency
Baltimore counters with Gunnar Henderson (.269, 62 RBIs) and the hot bat of Colton Cowser, who’s homered in back-to-back games despite a .202 average. Sometimes timing matters more than season-long numbers.
Why We Might Actually Win This One
Being favored feels weird, but there are legitimate reasons for cautious optimism:
- Home Field Advantage: Guaranteed Rate Field has been our sanctuary this season
- Smith’s Consistency: His 3.78 ERA represents quality starting pitching
- Kremer’s Health: Forearm issues could limit his effectiveness
- Motivation: Being favored might give our guys extra confidence
Baltimore is 25-31 when getting +108 or longer odds, which suggests they struggle when expectations are low and they’re playing for pride rather than playoff positioning.
The Psychological Factor
There’s something to be said for how our players will respond to being favored for once. After 151 games of being the underdog, maybe this change in expectations provides the kind of mental boost that creates unexpected results.
We’re also playing at home against a team that’s been just as disappointing as us this season. Sometimes when two struggling teams meet, the one with less pressure finds a way to surprise people.
What This Game Really Means
For Baltimore, it’s about avoiding a complete collapse and maintaining some dignity in a lost season. For us, it’s about proving we can handle being favored and showing that even in a historically bad year, we can still compete when expectations are reasonable.
Individual performances still matter for next year’s roster decisions. Sosa’s continued development, Meidroth’s emergence, and Smith’s case for staying in the rotation – these storylines matter regardless of team success.
Keys to Our First Quality Win as Favorites
- Smith establishes early dominance – Set the tone from the first inning
- Sosa continues his strong finish – Our best hitter needs to lead by example
- Take advantage if Kremer struggles – His forearm issues could create opportunities
- Play with confidence, not pressure – Embrace being the favorite for once
Final Prediction from the South Side
Being favored feels strange after a season of being massive underdogs, but there’s something refreshing about the oddsmakers actually believing in us for once. Smith has been quietly reliable, and sometimes that’s enough against a team dealing with their own struggles.
This isn’t about playoff implications or meaningful games – it’s about proving we can handle expectations and show some pride in the final weeks. Sometimes that’s enough to create a memorable night at 35th and Shields.
Predicted Final: White Sox 6, Orioles 4
Best Bet: White Sox -129 (embrace the rare favorite status)
Value Play: Over 8 runs
Hope: Smith’s consistency pays off in a quality start
It’s been a long, difficult season, but being favored for the third time all year feels like a small victory in itself. Let’s make the most of this rare opportunity and show what happens when people actually believe in us.
Go Sox! Time to prove we can handle being the favorite for once.