The Chicago Cubs (88-67) wrap up their weekend series in Cincinnati facing the Reds (79-76) in Sunday’s 1:40 p.m. matinee. Despite the Cubs’ superior record, Cincinnati enters as slight -119 favorites, while Chicago sits at -101 as road underdogs in what’s essentially a pick ’em game.
Game Details
Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025
Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
TV Coverage: MLB Network, Fox Sports Ohio, Marquee Sports Network
Betting Lines: Reds -119, Cubs -101
Run Total: 9 runs
Spread: Cubs -1.5 (+160)
Pitching Matchup: Two Reliable Starters
Andrew Abbott Looking for Double Digits
Andrew Abbott takes the mound for his 28th start, carrying a 9-7 record with an impressive 2.88 ERA across 156⅓ innings. His 143 strikeouts show he can miss bats consistently, and he’s just one win away from reaching double digits for the season.
Abbott’s home splits should favor Cincinnati, as he’s been particularly effective at Great American Ball Park this season. His ability to command the strike zone makes him a challenging matchup for any lineup.
Jameson Taillon Brings Experience
The Cubs counter with Jameson Taillon, who enters with a solid 10-6 record in his 22nd start. The veteran right-hander has been a steady presence in Chicago’s rotation, providing the kind of consistency that’s helped the Cubs maintain their strong record.
Taillon’s experience in big games could prove valuable in what amounts to a crucial late-season matchup for both teams’ postseason aspirations.
Cubs Offensive Strengths
Nico Hoerner Stays Hot
Nico Hoerner continues to pace the Cubs with a .301 batting average, providing the kind of consistent contact that sets up scoring opportunities throughout the lineup. His ability to reach base has been crucial to Chicago’s offensive success.
Power Production Continues
Pete Crow-Armstrong contributes 29 home runs with 37 doubles, showcasing the kind of extra-base power that makes this Cubs lineup dangerous. Ian Happ adds 23 homers and 85 walks, demonstrating the patience that’s helped Chicago rank 8th in baseball with 750 runs scored.
Seiya Suzuki leads the team with 91 RBIs, proving he can drive in runs when opportunities arise. The Cubs’ 209 home runs (7th in MLB) give them multiple ways to generate offense.
Reds Fighting for Relevance
Elly De La Cruz Provides Dynamic Threat
Elly De La Cruz leads Cincinnati with 83 RBIs while batting .262, bringing the speed-power combination that makes him constantly dangerous. His ability to impact games in multiple ways keeps the Reds competitive.
Solid Supporting Cast
TJ Friedl contributes 143 hits with a .362 on-base percentage, while Spencer Steer leads the team with 21 home runs. Austin Hays adds depth with 101 hits and a .454 slugging percentage, though he’s listed as day-to-day with back issues.
The Reds’ 4.5 runs per game (13th in MLB) shows they can compete offensively, though they lack the consistent power of Chicago’s lineup.
Statistical Comparison
The Cubs hold advantages in key offensive categories:
- Runs scored: Cubs 750 vs Reds 696
- Home runs: Cubs 209 vs Reds 161
- Team ERA: Cubs 3.84 (7th) vs Reds 3.94 (14th)
- Contact ability: Cubs 7.8 K/game vs Reds 8.7 K/game
Chicago’s superior offensive depth and pitching staff ERA give them clear advantages on paper.
Betting Analysis
Cincinnati has been modest as favorites this season, going 36-32 (52.9%) when favored overall. The Cubs have struggled as underdogs, winning just 18 of 44 games (40.9%) in that role.
The 9-run total reflects both teams’ offensive capabilities, though both clubs have seen the under hit more frequently this season.
Key Injuries
Cubs: Kyle Tucker (calf) and Miguel Amaya (ankle) remain on shorter-term IL, while Justin Steele continues his longer absence.
Reds: Austin Hays is day-to-day with back issues, which could impact their offensive depth for Sunday’s finale.
Series Context
This represents the final game of a crucial late-season series between division rivals. For the Cubs, maintaining their strong record heading into the final weeks remains paramount. Cincinnati is fighting to finish above .500 and potentially play spoiler.
Game Prediction
Final Score: Cubs 6, Reds 4
Total: Over 9 runs
While Cincinnati gets slight respect as home favorites, the Cubs’ superior offensive depth should prove decisive in what projects as a higher-scoring affair. Taillon’s experience gives Chicago an edge over Abbott, despite the young lefty’s solid numbers.
The Cubs’ ability to work counts and generate power should help them get to Cincinnati’s pitching staff. Both offenses have enough firepower to push this total over 9 runs, making for an entertaining Sunday afternoon finale.
Chicago should take advantage of this opportunity to gain momentum heading into the season’s final stretch, using their superior talent depth to pull out a road victory in a competitive division matchup.