Red Sox vs. Cubs Prediction July 18: High Stakes Showdown at Wrigley Field

The Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs are set to clash on Friday, July 18, 2025, at Wrigley Field for the first game of their interleague series. The Red Sox, riding a 10-game winning streak, aim to extend their momentum, while the Cubs look to solidify their lead in the NL Central. This matchup promises an exciting start to the second half of the MLB season.

Pitching Matchup

The pitching duel features Boston’s Lucas Giolito (6-1, 3.36 ERA) against Chicago’s Colin Rea (7-3, 3.91 ERA). Both pitchers have shown strong performances recently:

• Lucas Giolito (Red Sox): Giolito has been dominant, allowing only two runs in his last three starts. In his most recent outing, he pitched six scoreless innings, giving up four hits in a 10-2 win against Colorado. He holds a 2-3 record with a 7.86 ERA in five career games against the Cubs.
• Colin Rea (Cubs): Rea is coming off a strong performance, giving up just one run on three hits over seven innings in an 8-1 victory against Minnesota. He has a 1-0 record with a 3.18 ERA in his sole appearance against Boston.

Offensive Powerhouses

Both teams boast potent offenses, ranking high in runs per game and slugging percentage:

• Boston Red Sox:
  • Average 5.01 runs per game (5th in MLB).
  • .256 batting average (6th in MLB).
  • .433 slugging percentage (5th in MLB).
  • Key hitters:
    • Carlos Narvaez: .272 batting average.
    • Wilyer Abreu: 18 home runs.
    • Trevor Story: 58 RBI.
• Chicago Cubs:
  • Average 5.33 runs per game (2nd in MLB).
  • .256 batting average (7th in MLB).
  • .446 slugging percentage (2nd in MLB).
  • Key hitters:
    • Michael Busch: .290 batting average.
    • Seiya Suzuki: 25 home runs, 77 RBI.

Recent Team Performance

• Boston Red Sox: Entered the All-Star break on a 10-game winning streak, moving into third place in the AL East. Their bullpen ranks fifth in the league.
• Chicago Cubs: Won three of their last four games before the All-Star break, maintaining a one-game lead in the NL Central.

Injury Report

Both teams are dealing with significant injuries:

Betting Trends and Predictions

• Moneyline: The Cubs are favored at -138, while the Red Sox are underdogs at +116. Some models predict the Cubs to win with a 54% probability, while others favor the Red Sox due to their recent winning streak and Giolito’s form.
• Run Line: The Red Sox (+1.5) have a 65% chance of covering the run line.
• Total (Over/Under): The total is set at 8.5 runs. The over has a 51% chance of hitting according to some predictions, while others lean towards the under, citing both teams’ recent tendencies to play under the total.

This game is expected to be a close contest, with both teams vying for a strong start to the second half of the season. I personally will bet on the cubs, even though it is a very very close contest

Where to bet

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Sources

• Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction and Picks for July 18 2025, Winners & Whiners.
• Cubs vs. Red Sox: Injury Report, Updates & Probable Starters – July 18, Bleacher Nation.
• Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction and Picks for July 18 2025, Statsalt.
• Cubs Predicted to Win Friday’s MLB Matchup [7/18/2025], Dimers.com.
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