The Chicago Cubs (88-66) travel to Cincinnati Saturday evening to face the Reds (78-76) in what’s shaping up to be an intriguing matchup. Despite the Cubs’ superior record, Cincinnati enters as slight -116 favorites, while Chicago sits at -104 as road underdogs.
Game Details
Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
TV Coverage: Fox Sports Ohio (FDSOH), Marquee Sports Network
Betting Lines: Reds -116, Cubs -104
Run Total: 9 runs
Spread: Cubs -1.5 (+155)
Pitching Matchup: Experience vs Opportunity
Zack Littell Anchors Cincinnati’s Rotation
Zack Littell gets the ball for his 31st start, looking to reach double-digit wins with a 9-8 record and 3.86 ERA. His 123 strikeouts across 177⅔ innings show he can miss bats consistently, making him a reliable option for the Reds down the stretch.
Littell’s experience and durability have been valuable assets for Cincinnati this season, and pitching at home should give him an additional edge against the visiting Cubs.
Javier Assad Gets Another Chance
The Cubs counter with Javier Assad, who brings a 3-1 record into his sixth start of the season. While his limited starts create some uncertainty, Assad has shown flashes of quality when given opportunities.
This represents a significant spot for Assad to prove he belongs in the Cubs’ rotation plans moving forward, especially against a Cincinnati offense that can put up runs in bunches.
Cubs Offensive Advantages
Nico Hoerner Continues Hot Hitting
Nico Hoerner leads the Cubs with a .300 batting average, providing the kind of consistent contact that sets up scoring opportunities. His ability to reach base and create havoc on the basepaths has been crucial to Chicago’s success.
Power Throughout the Lineup
Pete Crow-Armstrong paces the team with 29 home runs, while Ian Happ contributes 23 homers and an impressive 85 walks. Seiya Suzuki leads Chicago with 91 RBIs, showing his ability to drive in runs when opportunities arise.
The Cubs rank 8th in baseball with 747 runs scored and 7th with 207 home runs. Their ability to avoid strikeouts (7.9 per game, 6th in MLB) should help them work counts against Littell.
Reds Looking to Play Spoiler
Elly De La Cruz Provides Dynamic Threat
Elly De La Cruz leads Cincinnati with 20 home runs and 83 RBIs while batting .262. His speed-power combination makes him a constant threat to change the game’s complexion with one swing or stolen base.
Balanced Supporting Cast
TJ Friedl contributes 141 hits with a .361 on-base percentage, while Spencer Steer matches De La Cruz with 20 home runs and adds 72 RBIs. Austin Hays provides additional pop with a .457 slugging percentage.
The Reds’ 4.5 runs per game (13th in MLB) shows they can compete offensively, though they lack the depth of Chicago’s more potent lineup.
Statistical Comparison
The Cubs hold advantages in key offensive categories:
- Runs scored: Cubs 747 vs Reds 690
- Home runs: Cubs 207 vs Reds 158
- Team ERA: Cubs 3.82 (7th) vs Reds 3.95 (14th)
However, Cincinnati’s pitching staff generates more strikeouts (8.6 K/9 vs 7.9 K/9), which could be important in a close game.
Betting Trends Analysis
Cincinnati has been modest as favorites, going 35-67 (52.2%) when favored this season. When favored by similar odds to Saturday’s line, they’re 30-28 (51.7%).
The Cubs have struggled as underdogs, winning just 18 of 43 games (41.9%) in that role. When facing similar underdog odds, they’re 16-20.
Both teams have seen the under hit more frequently this season, with Reds games staying under 86 times and Cubs games going under 84 times.
Injury Impact
Cubs: Kyle Tucker (calf) and Miguel Amaya (ankle) remain on the shorter-term IL, while Justin Steele and others are on longer-term injured reserve.
Reds: Several key pitchers remain on the 60-day IL, including Wade Miley and Brandon Williamson, limiting their rotation depth.
Game Prediction
Final Score: Cubs 6, Reds 5
Total: Over 9 runs
While the Cubs enter as slight underdogs, their superior offensive depth should prove decisive in what projects as a higher-scoring affair. Assad’s limited track record creates some uncertainty, but Chicago’s lineup has multiple ways to generate runs.
The Cubs’ ability to work counts and avoid strikeouts should help them get to Littell, while their power potential makes them dangerous in any ballpark. Cincinnati will keep this competitive at home, but Chicago’s overall talent advantage should carry them to victory.
Both offenses have the capability to push this total over 9 runs, especially if either starter struggles early. The Cubs should bounce back from any recent struggles and take advantage of this opportunity to gain ground in their division race.
Let´s Go Cubs!