Game Details & Apple TV+ Coverage
Friday, September 5, 2025
2:20 PM ET at Wrigley Field
TV: Apple TV+ (National Broadcast)
The Cubs welcome the Washington Nationals to Wrigley for a Friday afternoon showdown that has all the makings of a classic North Side slugfest. With favorable weather conditions and two struggling pitchers taking the mound, this could be the perfect opportunity for our offense to finally break out of its recent funk.
Current Betting Lines
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | +185 | +1.5 (-105) | Over 10.5 (-105) |
| Chicago Cubs | -225 | -1.5 (-115) | Under 10.5 (-115) |
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Advantage Cubs
Javier Assad – Chicago Cubs
- Record: 1-1, 4.05 ERA (limited action due to spring injury)
- Advanced Stats: 5.53 xERA, 4.64 FIP, 1.35 WHIP
- Season Status: Just 4th start after August debut
Assad’s numbers look decent on the surface, but the underlying metrics suggest some regression is coming. Still, he’s our guy, and at Wrigley in a day game, sometimes that’s all you need.
Jake Irvin – Washington Nationals
- Record: 5-13, 5.42 ERA
- Advanced Stats: 5.64 xERA, 5.56 FIP, 1.41 WHIP
- Major Weakness: 1.81 HR/9 rate (terrible for a day game at Wrigley)
This is where we need to pounce. Irvin has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season, ranking in the 15th percentile or worse in most key categories. His home run rate is particularly concerning with our left-handed power.
Cubs Offense: Time to Wake Up
Recent Struggles Need Context
We’ve been scuffling offensively since mid-August, ranking just 22nd in wRC+ (94) during that span. But here’s the thing – our plate discipline has remained strong with a 20.7% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate over the last 20 games. That tells me we’re seeing the ball well; we just haven’t been rewarded yet.
Kyle Tucker: The Catalyst We Need
Tucker has been absolutely locked in lately with a 176 wRC+ since August 15th. When our best hitter is performing at an elite level, it tends to lift everyone else. This is exactly what we traded for – a proven veteran who can carry the offense when needed.
The Left-Handed Advantage
Against a pitcher like Irvin who’s surrendering nearly two home runs per nine innings, our lefty power could feast. Michael Busch, Ian Happ, and others need to step up and take advantage of what should be a favorable matchup.
Why This Screams “Over” Bet
Weather Working in Our Favor
Friday’s forecast shows wind gusting out to right field – perfect conditions for left-handed hitters to turn flyouts into home runs. At Wrigley, weather can be the difference between a 6-4 game and a 12-8 barn-burner.
Two Struggling Pitchers
Neither Assad nor Irvin inspires confidence. Assad’s 5.53 xERA suggests his current numbers are unsustainable, while Irvin has been consistently terrible all season. The over/under sits at 10.5 runs, which feels very hittable given these pitching matchups.
Historic Wrigley Day Game Trends
Day games at Wrigley, especially with favorable wind conditions, have a long history of turning into high-scoring affairs. Add in two pitchers who struggle with command and home runs, and you have a recipe for offensive fireworks.
What We’re Facing from Washington
James Wood: The X-Factor
Wood has been the Nationals’ best offensive player recently with a 112 wRC+, though he’s striking out at an alarming 43% rate. Against Assad’s limited strikeout stuff, he could do some damage if he makes contact.
Offensive Struggles
The Nationals rank 24th in offense over their last 18 games, which is encouraging for us. However, they did just put up 10 runs against Miami in their last game, so they’re capable of explosive innings when everything clicks.
Cubs Fan Perspective: Why This Matters
This isn’t just another September game for us. We’re still in the playoff hunt, and every home win matters. More importantly, this is the perfect setup game for our offense to rediscover its rhythm heading into the stretch run.
Keys to Victory:
- Jump on Irvin early – His 5.42 ERA didn’t happen by accident
- Take advantage of favorable conditions – Wind blowing out means be aggressive on hittable pitches
- Assad needs to limit damage – Just keep us in the game and let our offense do the work
Betting Analysis & Prediction
The public is heavily backing us (82% of moneyline bets), which makes sense given the pitching matchup. But the real value might be in that over 10.5 total, especially with 85% of the money backing the over.
My Take: This has all the ingredients for a classic Wrigley slugfest – day game, favorable wind, two hittable pitchers, and an offense due to break out.
Prediction: Cubs 8, Nationals 6
Sometimes you just have to trust Wrigley magic. Assad gives us enough innings to win, Tucker stays hot, and our lefty power takes advantage of Irvin’s home run problems. The crowd will be into it, the conditions are perfect, and we’re playing a team that’s clearly inferior.
Final Thoughts for Cubs Fans
Apple TV+ games always have a different energy, and Friday afternoon baseball at Wrigley is special. This feels like one of those games where everything clicks – the weather cooperates, our bats wake up, and we remind everyone why day games at Clark and Addison are magical.
Let’s take advantage of this favorable matchup and build some momentum for the stretch run.
With the playoff race heating up, every Cubs home game becomes crucial. Friday’s conditions and matchup set up perfectly for the kind of offensive explosion that can spark a hot streak.
Let´s go Cubs!