The Chicago Cubs (88-68) host the New York Mets (80-76) Tuesday evening at Wrigley Field in what’s shaping up to be a competitive matchup between two teams with different trajectories. Despite the Cubs’ superior record, the Mets enter as slight underdogs at -100, while Chicago sits at -120 favorites.
Game Details
Date: Tuesday, September 23, 2025
Time: 7:40 p.m. ET / 6:40 p.m. CT
Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago
TV Coverage: TBS, Marquee Sports Network, SNY
Betting Lines: Cubs -120, Mets -100
Run Total: 7.5 runs
Spread: Mets -1.5 (+175)
Pitching Matchup: Horton vs Peterson
Cade Horton Gets the Ball for Chicago
Cade Horton takes the mound for his 22nd start carrying an impressive 11-4 record with a 2.66 ERA across 115⅔ innings. His 95 strikeouts demonstrate the kind of swing-and-miss stuff that’s made him a reliable option in the Cubs rotation.
Horton’s consistency has been a bright spot for Chicago this season, and facing the Mets at home should give him additional confidence in this crucial late-season matchup.
David Peterson Counters for New York
The Mets send David Peterson to the hill for his 30th start, carrying a 9-6 record. As a veteran left-hander, Peterson brings experience and the ability to change eye levels against a Cubs lineup that can be aggressive at the plate.
Peterson’s durability (30 starts) shows the Mets’ trust in his ability to eat innings, though he faces a Chicago offense that ranks 8th in baseball with 750 runs scored.
Cubs Offensive Strengths
Nico Hoerner Sets the Table
Nico Hoerner continues to pace the Cubs with a .299 batting average, providing the kind of consistent contact that creates scoring opportunities throughout the lineup. His ability to reach base has been crucial to Chicago’s offensive success.
Power Throughout the Lineup
Pete Crow-Armstrong contributes 140 hits with a .476 slugging percentage, while Ian Happ provides veteran leadership with a .342 on-base percentage. Seiya Suzuki leads the team with 91 RBIs, proving his ability to drive in runs when opportunities arise.
The Cubs rank 7th in baseball with 209 home runs while striking out just 7.8 times per game (5th best in MLB), showing they can work counts and create offensive pressure.
Mets Looking to Stay Competitive
Juan Soto Provides Elite Production
Juan Soto leads the Mets with 42 home runs, giving New York a legitimate superstar who can change games with one swing. His presence in the lineup forces opposing pitchers to attack the strike zone carefully.
Solid Supporting Cast
Pete Alonso leads the team with a .274 batting average and 122 RBIs, while Francisco Lindor contributes 28 home runs with solid all-around play. Brandon Nimmo adds 24 homers and veteran experience to the lineup.
The Mets rank 5th in baseball with 215 home runs, showing they can match Chicago’s power potential in the right situations.
Statistical Comparison
The Cubs hold slight advantages in several key areas:
- Runs per game: Cubs 4.8 vs Mets 4.7
- Team ERA: Cubs 3.82 (7th) vs Mets 3.99 (17th)
- Contact ability: Cubs 7.8 K/game vs Mets 8.2 K/game
However, New York’s superior home run production (215 vs 209) and pitching strikeout rate (8.7 K/9 vs 7.9 K/9) keep this matchup competitive.
Injury Impact
Cubs: Kyle Tucker (calf) and Miguel Amaya (ankle) remain on shorter-term IL, while Justin Steele continues his longer absence.
Mets: New York faces significant pitching depth issues with multiple arms on the 60-day IL, including several key relievers.
The Mets’ injury situation could impact their bullpen depth late in games.
Betting Analysis
The Cubs have been excellent as favorites this season, going 70-41 (63.1%) when favored. When favored by odds similar to Tuesday’s -120, they improve to 66-32 (67.3%).
The Mets have struggled as underdogs, winning just 18 of 45 games (40%) in that role. When facing similar underdog odds, they’re 10-18 (35.7%).
The 7.5-run total seems reasonable given both teams’ offensive capabilities and the quality pitching matchup.
Game Prediction
Final Score: Cubs 5, Mets 3
Total: Over 7.5 runs
Horton’s excellent season should continue against a Mets lineup that, while dangerous, lacks the consistent depth of Chicago’s offense. The Cubs’ superior record and home field advantage make them the logical choice.
Both teams have enough offensive firepower to push this total over 7.5 runs, especially if either starter struggles early. Chicago’s ability to work counts and avoid strikeouts should help them get to Peterson and create scoring opportunities throughout the game.
The Cubs should take advantage of playing at Wrigley and continue building momentum for their strong finish to the regular season.
Go Cubs go!