The Chicago Bulls (3-7 in last 10) travel to face the Indiana Pacers (2-8 in last 10) Saturday night at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, with tipoff set for 7:40 p.m. ET. We’re 4.5-point road favorites despite losing our last two games and riding a brutal 5-game against-the-spread losing streak. This is a dangerous spot.
Game Information
Date: Saturday, November 29, 2025
Tipoff: 7:40 p.m. ET / 6:40 p.m. CT
Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
League: NBA
Betting Lines and Odds
Moneyline: Bulls -173, Pacers +150
Spread: Bulls -4.5 (-104), Pacers +4.5 (-110)
Total: 243.5 points (Over -109 / Under -107)
Bulls in Terrible Form
Chicago sits at 3-7 in the last 10 games with a 2-game losing streak. Worse, we’re 3-7 against the spread with a catastrophic 5-game ATS losing streak – we’re not covering spreads at all lately.
Bulls games have leaned toward overs (7 overs, 3 unders), though our most recent game went under. We’re capable of scoring but can’t seem to get stops when needed.
Pacers Equally Terrible (But Covering Spreads)
Indiana sits at 2-8 in their last 10 games with a 1-game winning streak after finally snapping a losing skid. Here’s the concerning part – they’re 5-5 ATS with a 5-game ATS winning streak. They’re losing games but covering spreads consistently.
Pacers games have split on totals (5 overs, 5 unders) with 2 straight unders suggesting recent lower-scoring affairs.
Why This Line Makes Me Nervous
We’re 4.5-point road favorites despite being 3-7 straight up and 3-7 ATS with a 5-game ATS losing streak. Meanwhile, Indiana is 5-5 ATS with a 5-game ATS winning streak. The market is giving us respect we haven’t earned.
Bulls’ ATS Disaster
Five straight games failing to cover the spread. That’s not variance – that’s a pattern. We’re consistently underperforming expectations, which makes being road favorites feel like a trap.
Pacers’ ATS Success
Indiana has covered 5 straight spreads despite losing most of those games. They’re keeping games closer than expected and playing competitive basketball even while losing.
Road Favorite Warning Signs
Being a road favorite after two straight losses and a 5-game ATS losing streak screams trap game. The market expects us to win, but recent form suggests otherwise.
Tyrese Haliburton Will Orchestrate
The Pacers’ young star point guard will control tempo and create for teammates. He’ll dish 10+ assists and make our defense work for 48 minutes. Indiana’s offense runs through him, and he’s capable of taking over games.
We need to pressure him, make him uncomfortable, and limit his playmaking ability or this could spiral quickly.
Betting Analysis
The Spread
Bulls -4.5 feels dangerous given our 5-game ATS losing streak and Indiana’s 5-game ATS winning streak. The trends point strongly toward Pacers covering even if we win outright.
The Moneyline
Bulls -173 is expensive for a team that’s lost two straight and looks completely lost. Pacers +150 offers value for a home underdog that’s been covering spreads consistently.
The Total
Over 243.5 creates interesting tension. We’ve hit over in 7 of 10, but both teams have gone under recently. The high total reflects both teams’ offensive capabilities, but recent games suggest lower scoring.
Bulls’ Keys to Avoiding Disaster
For us to win and actually cover the 4.5-point spread (ending our ATS nightmare), we need:
- Defense finally shows up – Can’t keep giving up 120+ points
- Stop Haliburton’s playmaking – Make him score, not pass
- Execute in crunch time – We’ve blown close games lately
- End the ATS bleeding – Five straight failures to cover is unacceptable
Bulls Fan Perspective
This is a complete disaster scenario. We’re 3-7 in our last 10 with a 2-game losing streak and haven’t covered a spread in 5 straight games. Now we’re supposed to be 4.5-point road favorites against a Pacers team that’s covered 5 straight?
Everything about this screams trap game. Indiana is home, they’re covering spreads consistently despite losing, and we’re in awful form. The market is disrespecting the Pacers based on their 2-8 record while ignoring that they’re 5-5 ATS.
We should win this game based on talent, but “should win” hasn’t meant much lately. We’ve failed to meet expectations for five straight games against the spread.
Saturday night in Indianapolis against a team that keeps games closer than expected – this feels like exactly the type of game where we win by 2-3 points and fail to cover for the sixth straight time.
I want to believe we’ll dominate, but recent form suggests a close, ugly game where Indiana covers even if they lose.
Game Prediction
Projected Score: Pacers 126, Bulls 124
Indiana pulls off the home upset, continuing our nightmare stretch and extending their ATS winning streak to 6 games. Haliburton orchestrates the offense perfectly, hitting big shots late, and we can’t get stops when needed.
The game goes over 243.5 points as both teams score freely but neither can defend.
Best Bets:
- Pacers +4.5 (most confident) – They’ve covered 5 straight
- Pacers ML +150 (value play) – Real upset potential at home
- Over 243.5 (lean) – Neither team can defend
For Bulls fans, this represents rock bottom continuing. We’re favored on the road despite every trend suggesting we’ll fail to cover and possibly lose outright.
See Red (and hope for the best)…