The Chicago Bears (4-2) travel to face the struggling Baltimore Ravens (1-5) Sunday afternoon at M&T Bank Stadium. Despite our better record, we’re underdogs in this matchup – and honestly, the betting markets might be onto something.
Game Information
Date: Sunday, October 26, 2025
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET / 12:00 p.m. CT
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
TV Coverage: CBS
Betting Lines and Analysis
Moneyline: Ravens favored, Bears +165
Spread: Bears +6.5
Total: 33.0 points (leaning Under)
Bears’ Road Struggles
We’re 4-2 overall, which looks great on paper. But dig deeper and the cracks show – we’re averaging just 16.0 points per game, which ranks below league average. Our offensive line continues struggling, and now we’re facing one of the NFL’s most disruptive pass rushes.
Baltimore’s defense generates pressure on 20% of dropbacks compared to our offensive line allowing pressure at an alarming rate. That’s a brutal mismatch when you’re already struggling to score.
Quarterback Concerns
Case Keenum getting the start isn’t exactly inspiring confidence. His recent stats tell the story: 0 yards, 0 TDs, 0.0 passer rating in recent fixtures. Against a Ravens defense that’s created 5 more turnovers than they’ve given up this season, Keenum needs to protect the football above all else.
Betting angle: Under 200.5 passing yards for Keenum feels right.
Ravens Desperate for Home Win
Baltimore sits at 1-5, but don’t let that record fool you. They lead the NFL in third-down conversion rate at 68.7%, and their defense ranks among the league’s best in red zone efficiency (17% TD rate allowed).
The Ravens are desperate. They’re at home. They need this game to salvage any hope of playoff contention. That’s a dangerous combination for a Bears team that hasn’t exactly been lighting up scoreboards.
Mark Andrews Will Feast
The Ravens tight end has 55 catches for 673 yards and 11 TDs already. Our linebacker corps is undermanned and has struggled covering tight ends all season. Andrews should dominate the middle of the field.
Betting angle: Mark Andrews Over 4.5 receptions is one of the safest props available.
Defensive Struggle Expected
Both defenses are strong in the red zone – Baltimore at 17% TD rate allowed, Chicago at 16%. Neither offense has been explosive. This projects as a grind-it-out, low-scoring affair.
Six of our last eight games have gone under 40 total points. Baltimore averages 17.0 points per game at home. We average 16.0 on the road. The math points clearly to the under.
Key Defensive Matchups
Ravens Pass Rush vs Bears O-Line: This is where games get decided. If Baltimore gets consistent pressure, Keenum will struggle to find any rhythm. Our pass protection has been inconsistent at best.
Bears Run Defense vs Keaton Mitchell: We need to bottle up Baltimore’s running game and force them to be one-dimensional. Mitchell hasn’t been explosive (2.0 yards per carry), but he’s their primary ball carrier.
Historical Context
These teams have played tight games recently. The last five matchups have all been decided by a touchdown or less, with Baltimore holding a 3-2 edge and an average margin of just 4.8 points.
Most recent meeting: Ravens 14, Bears 13 in 2023. That game featured the same defensive slugfest we’re expecting Sunday.
Bears Fan Perspective
This is one of those games where I’m rooting hard for the upset but betting the other way. Our 4-2 record is somewhat misleading – we’ve won close games but haven’t dominated anyone. Baltimore, despite their record, has legitimate talent and desperation on their side.
The 6.5-point spread feels about right. We’ll keep it close through three quarters, but Baltimore’s superior third-down efficiency and pass rush will eventually wear us down.
Game Prediction
Final Score: Ravens 20, Bears 13
Baltimore gets their second win of the season in a defensive struggle. We’ll hang around and maybe have a chance late, but our offensive limitations – especially on the road against this pass rush – prove too much to overcome.
Best Bets:
- Ravens ML (most confident) – They’re the better team right now
- Under 33.0 points (strong play) – Defensive struggle written all over it
- Mark Andrews Over 4.5 receptions (lock) – He’ll dominate our linebackers
- Keenum Under 200.5 passing yards (value) – Limited by pressure and game plan
What We Need to Win
For us to pull the upset, we need:
- Protect Keenum – Can’t let Baltimore’s pass rush live in the backfield
- Establish the run – Control clock and keep their offense off the field
- Force turnovers – We’re +3 in turnover differential; need to create mistakes
- Red zone efficiency – Can’t settle for field goals against this opponent
Bottom Line
This is a tough road spot against a desperate team. Baltimore has the edge in pass rush, third-down efficiency, and home field advantage. Our offensive limitations – especially with Keenum at quarterback – make scoring 20+ points feel like a challenge.
I’m hoping for the best but preparing for a frustrating defensive battle where we struggle to move the ball consistently. Sometimes you just have to tip your cap to a better matchup.
Bear Down – let’s prove the doubters wrong.