Game Time: Sunday, January 4, 2026 at 1:25 PM CT
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago
TV: FOX
Spread: Bears -3
Total: 50.5 points
This is it, Bears fans. Week 18. The final regular season game. And we’ve got everything to play for.
We’re 11-5. We’ve already clinched the NFC North—yes, you read that right, the CHICAGO BEARS are NFC North champions for the first time in years. But that’s not enough. Win this game against the Lions, and we lock in the #2 seed in the NFC playoffs. That means home-field advantage through at least the divisional round, and potentially one game away from the Super Bowl.
Oh, and Caleb Williams needs 55 yards to become the first 4,000-yard passer in Bears franchise history.
No pressure or anything.
The Stakes: Everything Matters This Week
Bears: 11-5 (NFC North Champions, fighting for #2 seed)
Lions: 8-8 (eliminated from playoffs)
Let’s be clear about what’s on the line here. We win, we get the #2 seed. That means:
- Home playoff games at Soldier Field in January
- Avoiding the wild card round
- Better matchups in the divisional round
- One step closer to the Super Bowl
We lose? We could drop to the #3 or #4 seed, lose home-field advantage, and make our playoff path significantly harder.
The Lions? They’re 8-8 and eliminated from the playoffs. Their season is over. They’re playing for pride, evaluation of young players, and maybe to spoil our party.
But here’s the thing—we’re at home, we’re 6-1 at Soldier Field this season, and Caleb Williams is 55 yards away from immortality.
Caleb Williams: On the Verge of Bears History
Caleb Williams has 3,945 passing yards heading into Week 18. He needs 55 more yards to hit 4,000 for the season.
No Bears quarterback has ever thrown for 4,000 yards in a single season. Not Jay Cutler. Not Erik Kramer. Not Sid Luckman. Not even the great Jim McMahon (okay, he was never close, but still).
If Caleb hits 4,000 yards, he becomes the first in franchise history. As a rookie. In his first NFL season.
Why This Matters
Caleb Williams is everything we hoped he’d be when we tanked—I mean, “strategically positioned ourselves”—to get the #1 pick. He’s mobile, he’s got a cannon for an arm, and he’s playing with poise beyond his years.
3,945 yards as a rookie is already remarkable. 4,000 would cement his legacy and show the entire NFL that the Bears finally—FINALLY—have a franchise quarterback.
He needs 55 yards. That’s like two completions to DJ Moore and maybe a scramble. He’ll hit it in the first quarter.
The Lions: Defeated, Demoralized, and Dangerous?
Detroit is 8-8 and coming off three straight losses, including a 23-10 beat-down by Minnesota last week. They’re eliminated from the playoffs, and their season has completely fallen apart down the stretch.
What Went Wrong for the Lions
At one point, Detroit was in the playoff hunt. They were competitive, they had momentum, and it looked like they might sneak into the wild card.
Then they collapsed. Three straight losses. The offense sputtered. The defense got torched. And now they’re limping into Week 18 with nothing to play for except avoiding total embarrassment.
Why They’re Still Dangerous
Just because Detroit is eliminated doesn’t mean they’re rolling over. This is a division rival. They’ll want to beat us just to ruin our #2 seed hopes. David Montgomery is coming back to Soldier Field, and you know he’s going to be motivated.
Plus, teams with nothing to lose can be dangerous. No pressure, no expectations—they can just play loose and see what happens.
But we’re at home, we’re playing for something real, and they’re 3-5 on the road this season. We should handle them.
Why the Bears Win and Cover
1. We’re 6-1 at Soldier Field
Home-field advantage is real, especially in January at Soldier Field. The weather will be cold, the crowd will be loud, and we’re nearly unbeatable at home this season.
Our only home loss was a fluke. Every other game? We’ve dominated. The Lions are 3-5 on the road. They can’t win away from Ford Field consistently, and they’re not starting now.
2. Caleb Williams Will Be Locked In
Caleb knows he’s 55 yards from history. He’s going to come out aggressive, attack the Lions’ porous secondary, and get those yards early.
Once he hits 4,000, the pressure is off, and he can just play football. But don’t be surprised if he pushes for 275+ yards and multiple touchdowns. The kid is special.
3. Our Defense Feasts on Bad Offenses
The Lions are averaging 22.1 points per game. We’re giving up 24.8 per game, but at home, we’re significantly better.
Detroit’s offense has been inconsistent all season, and they’re coming off a 23-10 loss where they looked completely lost. Our front seven will pressure Jared Goff, force turnovers, and create short fields for Caleb.
4. Playoff Motivation > Pride
We’re playing for the #2 seed and home-field advantage in the playoffs. Detroit is playing for… what exactly? Pride? Draft position?
Motivation matters. When one team has everything to gain and the other has nothing to lose, the team with stakes usually wins.
5. We’re the Better Team
Let’s not overthink this. We’re 11-5. They’re 8-8. We have a point differential of +89. They’re at -45. We’re better on offense, better on defense, and better in every measurable category.
This shouldn’t be close.
Key Matchups That’ll Decide the Game
Caleb Williams vs Lions Secondary
Detroit’s pass defense has been bad all season. They give up big plays downfield, they struggle with mobile quarterbacks, and they can’t handle receivers who create separation.
Caleb Williams does all of those things. He extends plays with his legs, he hits deep shots, and DJ Moore creates separation on every route.
If the Lions can’t slow down Caleb, this game is over by halftime.
Edge: Bears by a mile
DJ Moore vs Cam Sutton
DJ Moore has been Caleb’s security blanket all season. He’s our best receiver, and Cam Sutton is going to be tasked with shutting him down.
Sutton is a solid corner, but DJ is a problem. He runs crisp routes, he’s physical at the catch point, and Caleb trusts him in tight windows.
Expect DJ to get 8+ targets and 100+ yards.
Edge: Bears
David Montgomery vs Bears Front Seven
D-Mont is coming back to Chicago, and you know he’s going to run hard. He’ll want to prove something against his former team.
But our front seven is good. We stuff the run, we force negative plays, and we make offenses one-dimensional. If Montgomery gets 60-70 yards, that’s a win for us.
Edge: Bears
The Betting Lines and My Picks
Spread: Bears -3
Total: 50.5
Best Bet: Bears -3 ✓✓✓
We’re at home, we’re the better team, and we’re playing for the #2 seed. Detroit is eliminated and struggling. Three points feels like a gift.
We should win by 7-10 points. Take the Bears and don’t think twice.
Strong Lean: Under 50.5 ✓✓
Both teams have been trending under lately, and I don’t see this turning into a shootout. We’ll control the clock, play defense, and grind out a win in the low-to-mid 20s.
Detroit’s offense has been anemic. They’re not scoring 28 points on us.
Player Prop: Caleb Williams Over 275.5 Passing Yards ✓✓✓
He needs 55 to hit 4,000. You think he’s stopping there? He’s going to sling it, attack downfield, and probably finish with 280-300 yards.
Smash the over.
Risky Play: Bears -7.5 (Alternate Spread)
If you want to get greedy, the alternate spread at -7.5 might have value. I think we win by double digits if everything goes right. But -3 is the safer play.
What Could Go Wrong?
Let’s be real—there are ways this goes sideways:
We look ahead to the playoffs. If our guys are already thinking about the divisional round, we could come out flat.
David Montgomery goes off. If D-Mont has one of those revenge games and rushes for 120+, Detroit can control the clock and keep it close.
Turnovers kill us. If Caleb throws a bad pick-six or we fumble in the red zone, Detroit can steal this game.
Weather gets ugly. January at Soldier Field can be brutal. If it’s windy and freezing, both offenses could struggle.
But none of those feel likely. We’re locked in, we’re at home, and we have everything to play for.
My Prediction: Bears Win Big
Final Score: Bears 27, Lions 17
We jump out early, Caleb hits 4,000 yards in the first half, and we cruise in the second half. Detroit makes it semi-respectable with a garbage-time touchdown, but we’re never in danger.
We cover the -3, the under hits, and Caleb goes for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns.
We lock in the #2 seed, celebrate the NFC North title, and head into the playoffs with momentum.
Keys to Victory
For the Bears to win and cover:
- Caleb hits 4,000 yards early and keeps attacking
- Defense forces 2+ turnovers
- DJ Moore with 100+ yards receiving
- Control time of possession (keep their offense off the field)
- No stupid penalties or turnovers
What kills us:
- Looking ahead to playoffs and playing flat
- David Montgomery revenge game (100+ yards rushing)
- Turnovers in the red zone
- Weather makes passing impossible
- Lions get hot and we can’t respond
The Honest Bears Fan Take
We’re 11-5. We’ve already won the NFC North. Caleb Williams is on the verge of becoming the first 4,000-yard passer in franchise history.
This is the best Bears season in YEARS. And we’re one win away from the #2 seed and home-field advantage in the playoffs.
The Lions are 8-8, eliminated, and broken. They should not beat us at Soldier Field.
Will we blow them out? Probably not—this is the Bears, and we love to make things harder than they need to be. But we should win comfortably, cover the -3, and walk into the playoffs feeling good about ourselves.
Bears 27, Lions 17. Book it.
Bear Down and FTP (especially this week).
Game Info Summary
- When: Sunday, January 4, 2026 at 1:25 PM CT
- Where: Soldier Field, Chicago
- TV: FOX
- Records: Bears 11-5, Lions 8-8
- Spread: Bears -3
- Total: 50.5
What’s at stake:
- Bears: #2 seed in NFC playoffs
- Lions: Pride (and that’s about it)
Caleb Williams Watch:
- Current yards: 3,945
- Needs for 4,000: 55 yards
- Bears franchise record: Would be first ever
Final betting picks:
- Bears -3 ✓✓✓
- Under 50.5 ✓✓
- Caleb Williams Over 275.5 yards ✓✓✓
Let’s finish the regular season 12-5 and lock in that #2 seed. Bear Down.