Cubs vs Giants Spring Training Prediction February 22: New-Look Chicago Tests the Lineup

February 22, 2026 | Sloan Park, Mesa, AZ | 2:05 PM CT | MLB Network, Marquee Sports Network

After a disappointing 78–84 season, the Chicago Cubs are back in Arizona with a revamped roster and renewed hope. Tyler Glasnow gives us the ace we’ve been missing. Jackson Merrill should finally lock down shortstop. And Pete Crow-Armstrong is ready to prove he’s an everyday center fielder.

Today we face the San Francisco Giants (74–88 last year), who are also trying to figure things out after missing the playoffs. Logan Webb is still elite, but they’re in transition mode with prospects like Kyle Harrison, Marco Luciano, and Luis Matos fighting for bigger roles.

This is exactly the kind of spring training game that matters. Two teams with talent trying to establish an identity. Two rosters full of young guys auditioning for the regular season. And for Cubs fans who sat through another sub-.500 year, it’s our first real look at whether the offseason moves actually matter.

Where the Cubs Stand After Another Lost Season

2025 Record: 78–84

Last year was frustrating. We were supposed to take a step forward, and instead we took a step sideways. The pitching was inconsistent. The offense disappeared for weeks at a time. And by September, we were playing out the string while watching other teams fight for playoff spots.

But the front office made moves. Tyler Glasnow was brought in to be our ace—elite velocity, swing-and-miss stuff, and championship experience. Jackson Merrill arrives to finally solve our shortstop problem. And guys like Cade Horton and Matt Shaw are knocking on the door, ready to contribute.

Pete Crow-Armstrong showed flashes last year, but he needs to prove he can hit consistently and be the center fielder of the future. If he takes that next step, everything changes.

Today, Glasnow gets the start. This is our first chance to see him in a Cubs uniform, even if it’s just spring training. If he can dominate for 3-4 innings and show he’s healthy, it sets the tone for the entire pitching staff.

The San Francisco Giants: Also Trying to Figure It Out

2025 Record: 74–88

The Giants were bad last year. Like us, they finished well below .500 and missed the playoffs. But they’ve got pieces. Logan Webb is one of the best pitchers in the National League. Kyle Harrison has frontline starter potential. And prospects like Marco Luciano and Luis Matos could break out.

Thairo Estrada provides infield versatility. Michael Conforto gives them a veteran bat. But this is a team in transition, trying to blend experienced guys with young talent and hoping it clicks.

Sound familiar? That’s basically where we are too.

The difference is we made bigger moves this offseason. Glasnow is a bigger addition than anyone they brought in. Merrill is a more established talent than Luciano (for now). And our farm system—finally—looks like it might actually produce impact players.

Position-by-Position Breakdown

Position Cubs Giants
Starting Pitcher Tyler Glasnow Logan Webb
Shortstop Jackson Merrill Marco Luciano
Center Field Pete Crow-Armstrong Luis Matos

Tyler Glasnow vs Logan Webb on the Mound
This is the headliner. Glasnow throws mid-to-high 90s with elite breaking stuff. Webb has pinpoint command and induces weak contact. Both are established aces. Whoever dominates today sets the tone for their team’s spring.

Jackson Merrill vs Marco Luciano at Shortstop
Merrill is the more polished player right now—slick defender, consistent bat. Luciano has higher upside—elite raw talent, just needs to put it together. This is a fun measuring-stick game for both.

Pete Crow-Armstrong vs Luis Matos in Center
Both are toolsy young outfielders trying to prove they’re everyday players. Crow-Armstrong has the slight edge in experience, but Matos is talented. Whoever has a better spring could establish themselves as the guy.

What the Cubs Need to See Today

Tyler Glasnow Dominates
Three or four innings of pure filth. Mid-90s fastballs painting corners. Sliders that make hitters look silly. No command issues, no injury concerns. Just show Cubs fans that we finally have a legitimate ace.

Jackson Merrill Looks the Part
A couple of quality at-bats—maybe a line drive double, maybe a smooth opposite-field single. And defensively, make the routine plays look easy. We’ve been searching for a shortstop solution for years. Show us you’re the answer.

Pete Crow-Armstrong Takes the Next Step
PCA needs to hit. The defense and speed are there, but if he can’t consistently make contact and get on base, he’s a defensive replacement instead of an everyday player. A couple of hard-hit balls today would build confidence.

Cade Horton and Matt Shaw Make Statements
Both guys could contribute this season if they’re ready. Horton needs to show his stuff translates against major league hitters. Shaw needs to prove his bat is ready for the show. Spring training is their audition.

Clean Defense
No mental mistakes. No botched double plays. No routine fly balls that turn into adventures. Execute fundamentals and look like a team that’s ready for Opening Day.

What the Giants Will Bring

Logan Webb will probably deal for 3-4 innings. He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, and even in spring training, he’s tough to hit. Kyle Harrison might get some innings behind him—big lefty with strikeout stuff.

Marco Luciano and Luis Matos will be motivated. They’re fighting for everyday roles, and a strong spring could lock them into starting spots. Expect maximum effort from guys who have something to prove.

The Giants are also rebuilding, but they’re a well-coached organization that plays fundamentally sound baseball. If we’re sloppy and they’re crisp, we’ll lose even with better talent.

The Cubs’ Offseason Moves Are Being Tested

This spring is all about one question: Did the front office actually improve the roster?

Tyler Glasnow should be an upgrade over what we had last year. Jackson Merrill should solve shortstop. The farm system prospects should be closer to contributing. But we need to see it on the field.

If Glasnow dominates, Merrill looks smooth, and Crow-Armstrong shows growth, then yeah—we’re better than last year’s 78-win team. If Glasnow struggles, Merrill looks lost, and PCA still can’t hit, then we’re in trouble.

Spring training games don’t count, but they reveal a lot. How guys handle their first at-bats. How pitchers command their stuff. How defenses communicate. All of that matters when you’re trying to establish an identity.

Cubs Fan Prediction: Tight Game, We Pull It Out

Final Score: Cubs 5, Giants 4

Tyler Glasnow throws four scoreless innings, showcasing that elite fastball and making Giants hitters look overmatched. Logan Webb matches him, keeping it scoreless early.

In the middle innings, our young bats wake up. Jackson Merrill rips a double into the gap. Pete Crow-Armstrong legs out an infield single and steals second. Matt Shaw comes off the bench and drives in a run.

The Giants fight back—Marco Luciano launches one, Luis Matos shows his speed—but our bullpen (led by guys auditioning for roster spots) executes in the late innings and we hold on.

It’s close, it’s competitive, and it gives Cubs fans something to feel good about heading into the regular season.

Why This Game Actually Matters

We’re not chasing a spring training championship. We’re chasing answers.

Is Tyler Glasnow healthy and ready to be our ace? Can Jackson Merrill be the franchise shortstop we’ve been searching for? Will Pete Crow-Armstrong finally put it together? Are Cade Horton and Matt Shaw ready to contribute?

The Giants are asking similar questions about their young guys. Whoever gets better answers this spring has a better shot at competing in 2026.

Last year, we finished 78–84 and watched the playoffs from home. That can’t happen again. The fanbase is restless. The expectations are higher after the Glasnow signing. And spring training is where we start proving that 2026 will be different.

Go Cubs Go. Let’s build something.