The Chicago Cubs (91-70) wrap up their series against the St. Louis Cardinals (78-83) Sunday afternoon at Wrigley Field with Michael Busch riding momentum from a two-homer performance in his last game. The Cubs enter as solid -169 favorites for this 3:20 p.m. ET rivalry matchup that could help solidify their strong late-season positioning.
Game Details
Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025
Time: 3:20 p.m. ET / 2:20 p.m. CT
Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago
TV Coverage: Marquee Sports Network, Fox Sports Midwest
Betting Lines: Cubs -169, Cardinals +140
Run Total: 8 runs
Spread: Cubs -1.5
Pitching Matchup: Assad vs Leahy
Javier Assad Gets Another Opportunity
Javier Assad takes the mound for his seventh start of the season with a 3-1 record and 4.26 ERA across 31⅔ innings. While his limited innings create some uncertainty, Assad has shown flashes of quality when given opportunities.
This represents exactly the type of spot where Assad can build confidence and show he belongs in the Cubs’ future plans.
Kyle Leahy Makes First Start
The Cardinals send Kyle Leahy to the hill for his first start of the season. Making a debut start in a rivalry game at Wrigley Field represents a significant challenge for the young pitcher.
Leahy will need to navigate a Cubs lineup that’s been productive throughout the season, particularly at home.
Cubs Offense: Busch Leading the Charge
Michael Busch’s Power Display
Busch enters Sunday riding high after his two-homer performance last time out. Leading the team with 34 home runs while driving in 90 runs and slugging .526, he’s been one of Chicago’s most consistent power threats. His recent surge suggests he could be primed for another big performance.
Supporting Cast Provides Balance
Nico Hoerner leads the team with a .297 batting average, providing consistent contact that sets up scoring opportunities. Kyle Tucker contributes 22 home runs and 73 RBIs, while Pete Crow-Armstrong adds 145 hits with solid production.
The Cubs rank 4th in baseball with 791 runs scored while maintaining excellent plate discipline, striking out just 7.9 times per game (6th in MLB).
Cardinals Looking to Salvage Series
Balanced Offensive Attack
Alec Burleson leads St. Louis with a .290 batting average, while Brendan Donovan and Ivan Herrera both contribute solid production. Lars Nootbaar adds patience with 64 walks despite a .234 average.
The Cardinals’ 4.3 runs per game shows they can compete offensively, though they lack the consistent power of Chicago’s lineup with just 148 home runs (29th in MLB).
Statistical Advantages Favor Chicago
The Cubs hold clear edges in several key areas:
- Runs per game: Cubs 4.9 vs Cardinals 4.3
- Home runs: Cubs 222 vs Cardinals 148
- Team ERA: Cubs 3.82 (8th) vs Cardinals 4.31 (20th)
- Power production: Cubs average 1.4 HRs per game
Chicago’s superior offensive production and pitching staff give them meaningful advantages.
Betting Analysis
The Cubs have been excellent as heavy favorites this season, going 27-13 (67.5%) when favored by odds similar to Sunday’s -169. Their overall record as favorites stands at 73-42 (63.5%).
The Cardinals have struggled significantly as heavy underdogs, going just 9-17 when facing odds of +140 or worse. This trend strongly favors Chicago.
Key Injuries
Cubs: Miguel Amaya remains on the 10-day IL, while Cade Horton has been moved to the 15-day IL with rib issues.
Cardinals: Masyn Winn and Willson Contreras both remain on the 10-day IL, limiting St. Louis’s lineup options for the series finale.
Rivalry Factor
Cubs-Cardinals games always carry extra intensity, especially at Wrigley Field. With Chicago in position for a strong playoff seed, this represents an opportunity to send a message while finishing the regular season strongly.
Game Prediction
Final Score: Cubs 7, Cardinals 3
Total: Over 8 runs
Busch’s hot streak, combined with Chicago’s home field advantage and statistical superiority, should prove decisive. The Cubs’ excellent record as heavy favorites suggests they handle expectations well in these situations.
Leahy’s inexperience making his first start could be exploited by Chicago’s patient, productive lineup. The Cubs should take advantage of this opportunity to continue their strong September while adding another chapter to this historic rivalry.
Both teams have enough offensive capability to push this total over 8 runs, especially if Leahy struggles early in his debut.
Goooo Cubs!!!