The Chicago Cubs are set to face their NL Central rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals, on Sunday, July 6, 2025, at Wrigley Field. This highly anticipated matchup features contrasting pitching matchups and offensive strengths, with various sports analysts offering their predictions and betting odds for the game.
Game Details and Pitching Matchup
The rubber match of this three-game series is scheduled for Sunday, July 6, 2025, at 6:10 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
For the Chicago Cubs, Matthew Boyd (8-3, 2.65 ERA) is slated to start. Boyd has been in excellent form, allowing two runs or fewer in his last seven outings. His strong performance is a key factor in the Cubs’ favor.
Opposing him for the St. Louis Cardinals will be Erick Fedde (3-8, 4.56 ERA). Fedde has struggled this season, with concerning expected metrics, including a 5.42 xERA and a 1.42 WHIP. His low strikeout and whiff rates, along with a high expected batting average against, make him a vulnerable target for the Cubs’ offense.
Betting Odds and Predictions
Odds for the game show the Cubs as clear favorites, reflecting their strong season performance and the pitching matchup.
- Head to Head: Cubs -205, Cardinals +169
- Run Line: Cubs -1.5 (+108 to +2.25), Cardinals +1.5 (-1.67 to +1.80)
- Total Runs (Over/Under): 7.5 to 11 runs
Several analytical models and experts favor the Cubs:
- Pickswise: Predicts Cubs -1.5, citing Fedde’s struggles and the Cubs’ strong offense (4th in OPS).
- Stats Insider: Gives the Cubs a 64% chance of winning, with their model predicting the Cardinals +1.5 to cover the line 55% of the time, and the under on total runs (7.5) being an equal 50-50 chance.
- Bleacher Nation: Predicts a Cubs 5-4 victory, with the total going over 7.5 runs.
Key Takeaways
- The Chicago Cubs are heavily favored due to Matthew Boyd’s strong pitching and their potent offense.
- Erick Fedde’s struggles on the mound for the Cardinals are a significant concern for St. Louis.
- Betting trends indicate the Cubs have performed well as moneyline favorites, especially at odds of -205 or shorter.
- The Cardinals have struggled as underdogs, particularly at +169 or higher.
Team Statistics and Player Insights
Chicago Cubs:
- Offense: Second in MLB in runs scored (5.4 per game), third in home runs (135 total), and fifth in batting average (.256).
- Pitching: 13th in team ERA (3.83) and 26th in strikeouts per nine innings (7.5).
- Key Players: Seiya Suzuki (24 HR, 75 RBI), Michael Busch (.293 AVG, 18 HR, 56 RBI), Kyle Tucker (17 HR, 52 RBI, .283 AVG).
St. Louis Cardinals:
- Offense: Ninth in runs scored (414 total) and 18th in home runs (91 total).
- Pitching: 19th in team ERA (4.04) and 29th in strikeouts per nine innings (7.4).
- Key Players: Brendan Donovan (.296 AVG), Nolan Arenado (10 HR, .244 AVG), Alec Burleson (11 HR).
Injury Report
Chicago Cubs:
- Miguel Amaya: 10 Day IL (Oblique)
- Jameson Taillon: 15 Day IL (Calf)
- Justin Steele: 60 Day IL (Elbow)
- Javier Assad: 60 Day IL (Oblique)
- Eli Morgan: 60 Day IL (Elbow)
St. Louis Cardinals:
- Iván Herrera: 10 Day IL (Hamstring)
- Jordan Walker: 10 Day IL (Appendicitis)
- Zack Thompson: 60 Day IL (Lat)
- Nolan Arenado: Day-to-day (Shoulder)
Given the pitching matchup and offensive statistics, the Chicago Cubs appear to have a significant advantage in this NL Central showdown.
Sources
- MLB Best Bets 7/6: Baseball Predictions & Picks for Sunday, Pickswise.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Odds, Odds Shark.
- Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction and MLB Tips, Stats Insider.
- Cubs vs. Cardinals Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats & Best Bets – Sunday, July 6, 2025, Bleacher Nation.
- Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction and MLB Tips, Stats Insider.