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The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres are set to clash on July 9, 2025, at Petco Park in a pivotal NL West matchup. With both teams vying for a Wild Card spot, the game promises high stakes. The Padres are favored, despite both starting pitchers, Brandon Pfaadt and Dylan Cease, having struggled recently.
Game Overview
- Date: Wednesday, July 9, 2025
- Time: 9:40 PM ET
- Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
- Series Status: Tied 1-1 in a four-game series
Pitching Matchup
The mound will feature Arizona’s Brandon Pfaadt (RHP) and San Diego’s Dylan Cease (RHP). Both pitchers have had challenging seasons, making their performances crucial for their respective teams.
Brandon Pfaadt (Diamondbacks):
- Record: 8-6
- ERA: 5.42
- WHIP: 1.38
- Recent Form: Allowed 11 runs (10 earned) over his last three starts (16 innings).
- Career vs. Padres: 1-2 with a 3.48 ERA in six starts. Current Padres hitters are 30-for-86 against him.
Dylan Cease (Padres):
- Record: 3-8
- ERA: 4.62
- WHIP: 1.32
- Recent Form: Surrendered 15 runs (14 earned) over his last four starts (21.2 innings).
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: 1-1 with a 2.49 ERA in three starts. Current Diamondbacks hitters are 15-for-71 against him.
Team Performance and Trends
Arizona Diamondbacks:
- Current Record: 45-47 (4th in NL West)
- Road Record: 22-22
- Recent Form: Lost eight of their last 12 games; winless in three straight series.
- Offense (Last 2 weeks): .229/.300/.416 with 20 HRs.
- Bullpen (Last 2 weeks): 4.17 ERA, 1.37 WHIP.
- Betting Trends: Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Have failed to cover the run line in their last six Wednesday games against winning teams.
San Diego Padres:
- Current Record: 49-42 (3rd in NL West)
- Home Record: 28-16
- Recent Form: 4-6 in their last 10 games; won one of their last three series.
- Offense (Last 2 weeks): .225/.315/.323 with 8 HRs.
- Bullpen (Last 2 weeks): 2.79 ERA, 0.99 WHIP.
- Betting Trends: Under is 6-3 in their last 9 games. Have won seven of their last eight night games against NL West opponents with a losing record.
Betting Odds and Predictions
- Moneyline: Padres -140 / Diamondbacks +120
- Total Runs: 7.5 or 8.5 (varies by source)
Most analysts lean towards the Padres, citing their stronger home record, better bullpen, and historical success against Pfaadt. The over/under predictions are split, with some favoring the over due to the starting pitchers’ recent struggles and others predicting the under given the low-scoring nature of recent games between these two teams.
Key Player Matchups to Watch:
- Luis Arraez (Padres): 10-for-16 with two doubles against Pfaadt.
- Jake Cronenworth (Padres): 7-for-16 against Pfaadt.
- Josh Naylor (Diamondbacks): 6-for-23 against Cease.
Conclusion
The Padres are favored to win this matchup, largely due to their home advantage, a more reliable bullpen, and favorable historical matchups against Pfaadt. While both starting pitchers have shown vulnerability, the Padres’ lineup has a stronger track record against Pfaadt, potentially leading to a higher-scoring game for San Diego.
