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As a longtime D-backs fan, I’ve got to be honest – this Wednesday afternoon matchup against the Giants has all the makings of a slugfest. Both teams are sending struggling pitchers to the mound, and with our offense clicking on all cylinders this season, I’m expecting fireworks at Chase Field.
Game Details
Date: Wednesday, September 17, 2025
Time: 3:40 p.m. ET / 12:40 p.m. local
Location: Chase Field, Phoenix
TV Coverage: MLB Network, Arizona Sports (ARID)
Betting Lines: Pick ’em at -110 each side
Run Total: 9 runs (-105 over / -115 under)
Spread: Giants -1.5 (+150), Diamondbacks +1.5 (-180)
Pitching Matchup: Experience vs Youth
Justin Verlander Takes the Hill for San Francisco
The Giants are rolling with Justin Verlander, and frankly, Father Time appears to be catching up with the future Hall of Famer. At 3-10 with a 3.94 ERA this season, Verlander has been a shadow of his dominant self. His struggles against Arizona are particularly noteworthy – he’s 0-2 with a 10.00 ERA and 2.11 WHIP in his last two starts against us over the past two seasons.
What’s even more concerning for Giants fans is Verlander’s underlying metrics. He ranks in the 38th percentile or lower in expected ERA, expected batting average, and strikeout rate. Those aren’t the numbers you want from your veteran ace.
Brandon Pfaadt Gets Another Chance
Let’s be real about Brandon Pfaadt – he’s been our most frustrating pitcher this season. Despite carrying a 13-8 record that looks respectable on paper, his 5.31 ERA and 1.40 WHIP tell the real story. His 5.74 expected ERA is even worse, ranking in the bottom 12th percentile for average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
The Giants have absolutely demolished Pfaadt historically, batting .317 with a .610 slugging percentage and .415 weighted on-base average against him. In four meetings between these teams with Pfaadt on the mound, he’s 0-4 with a 5.95 ERA.
Why the Diamondbacks Can Win This One
Our Offense Is Elite
Here’s the thing that gives me confidence despite Pfaadt’s struggles – this Diamondbacks lineup is absolutely stacked. We rank in the top 5 in baseball in runs scored per game, slugging percentage, and OPS. When you’ve got an offense this potent, it covers up a lot of pitching mistakes.
Our lineup has consistently bailed out Pfaadt all season long, which explains how a pitcher with his metrics carries a winning record. In a game where both starters figure to struggle, I’ll take our bats over San Francisco’s any day of the week.
Playing at Home Matters
Chase Field has been our fortress this season, and the afternoon games in the desert can be particularly challenging for visiting pitchers. The ball carries well in our ballpark, especially during day games, which should benefit both offenses but particularly ours since we’re more familiar with the conditions.
Giants’ Offensive Concerns
While Verlander has been inconsistent, the Giants’ offensive production has been equally problematic. They don’t have the same depth or power that our Diamondbacks lineup possesses, which could be crucial in what projects as a high-scoring affair.
San Francisco will need to capitalize on Pfaadt’s mistakes early and often, but their track record suggests they might not have the firepower to keep pace with our explosive offense.
Bullpen Battle Could Decide the Game
Here’s where things get interesting – while both starters are likely to struggle, the bullpen battle could determine the outcome. Arizona’s relief corps has been inconsistent this season, ranking in the bottom four in ERA, expected ERA, and WAR.
However, in a game where runs should be plentiful, the team that can get just enough stops late in the game will likely come out on top.
Betting Analysis and Trends
The betting public is all over this total – 97% of bets and 98% of the money are backing the over 9 runs. While I typically get nervous when the public is this unanimous, the pitching matchup and both teams’ offensive capabilities support this sentiment.
Interestingly, 70% of bets are on Arizona to cover the spread, but 45% of bets favor the Giants on the moneyline. This suggests even Arizona backers aren’t completely confident in Pfaadt.
My Prediction
Final Score: Diamondbacks 8, Giants 6
Total: Over 9 runs
This game has all the ingredients for a classic Chase Field slugfest. Both pitchers have shown significant vulnerabilities, and our offensive firepower should be the difference maker. While Pfaadt will likely give up his share of runs, I expect our lineup to put up enough crooked numbers to pull away.
Verlander’s struggles against Arizona dating back two seasons suggest he’s in for another difficult afternoon in the desert. When you combine that with Pfaadt’s tendency to allow hard contact, this total should sail over 9 runs.
Go D-backs! 🐍⚾
The key for Arizona will be getting to Verlander early and building a cushion before the bullpens take over. In a season where we’ve shown we can outscore our problems, this afternoon presents another perfect opportunity to do just that.
