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The Arizona Diamondbacks (77-77) host the Philadelphia Phillies (92-62) Saturday night at Chase Field in what’s essentially a pick ’em game, with Arizona slightly favored at -115 and Philadelphia at -104. This matchup features two quality starters and could be a preview of the type of baseball we’d see if these teams met in October.
Game Information
Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET / 5:10 p.m. local
Location: Chase Field, Phoenix
TV Coverage: Arizona Sports (ARID), NBC Sports Philadelphia
Betting Lines: Diamondbacks -115, Phillies -104
Run Total: 9 runs
Spread: Phillies -1.5 (+151)
Pitching Matchup: Two Proven Starters
Zac Gallen Takes the Ball for Arizona
Zac Gallen gets his 32nd start of the season with a 12-14 record that doesn’t tell the full story of his contributions. His 4.73 ERA across 180⅔ innings shows he’s been somewhat inconsistent, but his 163 strikeouts demonstrate he still has the stuff to dominate when he’s locked in.
Pitching at Chase Field in the evening should give Gallen some advantages, as the desert conditions can be challenging for visiting hitters to navigate.
Aaron Nola Counters for Philadelphia
The Phillies send Aaron Nola to the mound for his 16th start, carrying a 4-9 record that’s been disappointing by his standards. While his numbers haven’t been spectacular, Nola brings playoff experience and the ability to rise to big moments.
This represents exactly the type of game where Nola’s veteran savvy could prove decisive against a Diamondbacks lineup that can explode offensively.
Diamondbacks Offense: Desert Power
Corbin Carroll Leading the Charge
Corbin Carroll continues to pace Arizona with 30 home runs while driving in 78 runs and slugging .543. His speed-power combination makes him a constant threat, and playing at home typically brings out his best.
Balanced Attack Throughout
Geraldo Perdomo leads the team with 97 RBIs while batting a solid .289. Ketel Marte contributes with 126 hits and a .508 slugging percentage, while Gabriel Moreno adds steady contact at .285.
This Diamondbacks offense ranks 4th in baseball with 760 runs scored and 8th with 206 home runs. Their ability to generate offense in multiple ways has kept them competitive despite pitching inconsistencies.
Phillies’ Playoff-Caliber Lineup
Kyle Schwarber Brings Elite Power
Kyle Schwarber leads Philadelphia with 53 home runs and 128 RBIs – numbers that put him among baseball’s elite power hitters. His ability to change games with one swing makes him particularly dangerous in Chase Field’s hitter-friendly environment.
Star Supporting Cast
Bryce Harper (.266, 27 HRs) provides veteran leadership, while Bryson Stott and Nick Castellanos add depth throughout the lineup. This Phillies offense ranks 7th in baseball with 751 runs and 3rd with a .260 team batting average.
Philadelphia’s contact-oriented approach (8.1 strikeouts per game) could prove effective against a Diamondbacks pitching staff that ranks just 22nd in strikeouts per nine innings.
The Pitching Staff Divide
Phillies Hold Clear Advantage
Philadelphia’s pitching staff provides a significant edge with their 3.85 ERA (9th in MLB) and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings (3rd in baseball). This depth has been crucial to their 92-62 record and playoff positioning.
Arizona’s Struggles Continue
The Diamondbacks’ 4.46 ERA ranks 23rd in baseball, explaining why they’ve hovered around .500 despite their offensive firepower. Their inability to consistently get outs has cost them numerous games.
Key Injuries
Diamondbacks: Long-term losses like Corbin Burnes and A.J. Puk have significantly weakened their pitching depth when they needed it most.
Phillies: Trea Turner (hamstring) remains on the 10-day IL, while Zack Wheeler’s absence on the 60-day IL impacts their rotation depth.
Betting Analysis
Arizona has been mediocre as slight favorites, going 45-88 (51.1%) when favored this season. Philadelphia has actually performed well as underdogs despite limited opportunities, winning 16 of 32 games (50%).
The 9-run total reflects both teams’ offensive capabilities, with Arizona going over 74 times and Philadelphia going over 68 times this season.
What Makes This Intriguing
Despite Philadelphia’s superior record, this game feels genuinely competitive. Arizona’s offensive firepower at home creates an interesting dynamic against a Phillies team that’s been inconsistent on the road.
The pitching matchup between Gallen and Nola adds another layer, as both starters have the ability to dominate when they’re on their game.
Game Prediction
Final Score: Diamondbacks 8, Phillies 6
Total: Over 9 runs
Chase Field’s hitter-friendly environment combined with two potent offenses should produce plenty of runs. While Philadelphia has the better overall roster, Arizona’s home field advantage and desperate need for wins could prove decisive.
Both teams have struggled with pitching consistency this season, and I expect both offenses to take advantage. The Diamondbacks’ familiarity with their ballpark and the pressure-free environment of playing spoiler should help them edge out a high-scoring victory.
This projects as exactly the type of entertaining, back-and-forth game that makes September baseball compelling, with the home team pulling it out late.
