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The Arizona Diamondbacks (73-74) head to Minnesota Friday night knowing we’ve got exactly what it takes to upset the Twins on their home turf. Despite being road underdogs at +110, our explosive offense that ranks 6th in MLB gives us every reason to believe we can steal one in the Twin Cities.
Game Details and Viewing Information
When: Friday, September 12, 2025 at 8:10 PM ET
Where: Target Field, Minneapolis
TV: Minnesota Twins Network (MNNT) and Arizona Sports (ARID)
Betting Lines and Road Dog Value
The oddsmakers are giving us solid value as visitors:
- Twins Moneyline: -131
- Diamondbacks Moneyline: +110
- Run Line: Twins -1.5
- Total Runs: 8.5
Getting +110 with an offense that’s scored 724 runs (6th in MLB) feels like the books are undervaluing our ability to put runs on the board. Sometimes the market overreacts to home field advantage, and this might be one of those spots.
Pitching Matchup: Pfaadt vs. Lopez
Diamondbacks: Brandon Pfaadt (13-8) makes his 30th start of the season
Twins: Pablo Lopez (5-4, 2.83 ERA) takes the mound for his 13th start
This matchup looks tougher on paper than it might play out. Lopez has been excellent when healthy with that 2.83 ERA, but he’s only made 13 starts all season due to various issues. That limited workload could be a factor late in the year when innings start piling up.
Pfaadt’s 13-8 record tells the story of a pitcher who knows how to win games. Sure, his numbers aren’t eye-popping, but he’s been consistent and reliable all season long. Against a Twins offense that’s struggled to score (24th in MLB at 4.2 runs per game), consistent might be enough.
D-backs Offensive Explosion: Elite Production
The Numbers Don’t Lie: We rank 6th in MLB in both runs scored (724) and home runs (199), while Minnesota sits at 24th in runs (617) and 12th in homers (173). This isn’t just an advantage – it’s a massive gap in offensive capability.
Our Weapons:
- Geraldo Perdomo: Team leader with a .284 average and 93 RBIs from unexpected production
- Corbin Carroll: 30 home runs providing that dynamic speed-power combination
- Ketel Marte: Veteran steadiness hitting .281 with 25 homers and elite plate discipline
- Gabriel Moreno: Young catcher emerging as a key contributor (.286 average)
What makes our offense special is the depth. We don’t have just one or two guys carrying the load – we’ve got legitimate threats throughout the lineup who can change the game with one swing. That’s exactly what you need on the road against quality pitching.
Twins Struggles: Offense Can’t Keep Pace
Minnesota’s issues are pretty clear when you look at the numbers. Ranking 24th in runs per game (4.2) with a .239 team batting average tells the story of a lineup that simply can’t score consistently.
Byron Buxton has been solid (.275, 31 HRs, 76 RBIs), but beyond him, this lineup has serious holes. When you’re relying heavily on one player for offensive production, that creates predictable patterns that opposing pitchers can exploit.
Road Warrior Mentality
Here’s something that should excite every D-backs fan: we’re 30-32 as underdogs this season (48.4% win rate), and specifically 20-16 when getting +110 or better odds. That’s a 55.6% win rate when we’re supposed to lose – exactly the kind of team that can surprise people in September.
Meanwhile, the Twins are just 38-45 when favored (45.8%) and 23-21 at similar odds to tonight (52.3%). Those numbers suggest a team that struggles to meet expectations when they’re supposed to win.
Injury Concerns: Both Teams Dealing with Issues
The injury report favors neither team particularly, but Ketel Marte being day-to-day with a foot issue bears watching. If he can play through it, that’s huge for our offensive flow. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s pitching depth has been tested all year with various injuries.
Why We Can Win in Minnesota
**Offensive Superiority:** Simply put, we score more runs than they do – a lot more. In a sport where runs win games, that’s the most important factor.
**Road Success:** Our track record as underdogs shows this team doesn’t get intimidated by hostile environments or unfavorable odds.
**Pfaadt’s Consistency:** 30 starts and a winning record means our guy has been reliable all season when the lights are brightest.
**Late Season Confidence:** Teams playing with house money in September can be dangerous, especially when facing clubs dealing with pressure.
Target Field: Neutral Ground
Target Field isn’t particularly pitcher or hitter-friendly, which should favor the team with superior offensive talent. Our power numbers suggest we can take advantage of any mistakes Lopez makes, while Pfaadt just needs to keep us close through six or seven innings.
Keys to Victory in Minneapolis
- Jump on Lopez early – He’s been good but hasn’t pitched deep into games consistently
- Carroll sets the tone – Our speed-power combo needs to create chaos from the start
- Pfaadt attacks the zone – Don’t let their patient hitters work deep counts
- Take advantage of their bullpen – Minnesota’s relief corps has been inconsistent
Historical Context and September Baseball
September baseball is all about which teams are playing loose versus which ones are pressing. With our season essentially over in terms of playoff hopes, we can play with the kind of freedom that creates upsets. Meanwhile, Minnesota might be feeling pressure to perform as favorites.
Final Prediction from the Desert
This feels like one of those games where offensive talent wins out over circumstance. Lopez has been good when healthy, but our lineup has been crushing pitching all season long. Pfaadt gives us a chance, and our offense should do the rest.
Getting +110 with the 6th-ranked offense in baseball feels like a gift from the betting gods. Sometimes the simple approach works – back the team that scores more runs.
Predicted Final: Diamondbacks 8, Twins 5
Best Bet: D-backs moneyline +110
Value Play: Over 8.5 runs
Bold Prediction: Carroll and Marte both homer
Sedona Red Rising! Time to show Minnesota what desert baseball looks like. Our offense has been elite all year – let’s prove it on the road when nobody expects it. Go D-backs!
