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The Arizona Diamondbacks (74-75) head into Sunday’s series finale against the Minnesota Twins (65-83) with everything to play for. After splitting the first two games, we’ve got a legitimate chance to take this series on the road and show that our explosive offense can compete anywhere in the league.
Game Details and Viewing Information
When: Sunday, September 14, 2025 at 2:10 PM ET
Where: Target Field, Minneapolis
TV: Minnesota Twins Network (MNNT) and Arizona Sports (ARID)
Betting Lines Undervalue the D-backs
The oddsmakers still haven’t learned to respect our offensive firepower:
- Twins Moneyline: -130
- Diamondbacks Moneyline: +110
- Run Line: Twins -1.5
- Total Runs: 9.0
Getting +110 in a series decider with the 5th-ranked offense in baseball feels like Christmas morning. We’re 21-17 when getting +110 or better odds this season (55.3% win rate), which shows this team thrives when nobody believes in us.
Pitching Matchup: Opportunity Knocks
Diamondbacks: Nabil Crismatt (2-0) makes his 5th start of the season
Twins: Bailey Ober (5-7, 5.08 ERA) takes the mound for his 25th start
This matchup sets up beautifully for us. Ober has been getting hammered all season with that 5.08 ERA, and he’s facing the wrong offense on the wrong day. Meanwhile, Crismatt may not have the flashiest numbers, but he’s been effective in limited action and knows how to keep us in games.
When you’re facing a pitcher who’s allowed over five runs per nine innings, you attack early and often. Our lineup has the depth and discipline to make Ober work from the first pitch.
D-backs Offensive Domination: Elite vs. Struggling
The Numbers Tell the Story: We rank 5th in MLB in runs scored (737) and 6th in home runs (202), while Minnesota limps along at 25th in runs (628) and 12th in homers (176). This gap in offensive production should be decisive in a series finale.
Our Weapons:
- Geraldo Perdomo: Team-leading .286 average and 95 RBIs from unexpected excellence
- Gabriel Moreno: Red-hot at .292 and emerging as a legitimate star
- Corbin Carroll: 30 home runs with that game-changing speed-power combination
- Ketel Marte: Veteran steadiness at .280 with elite plate discipline
What makes this lineup special is our balance and contact ability. We rank 10th in batting average (.250) and 10th in fewest strikeouts per game, meaning we consistently put pressure on opposing pitchers. Against someone struggling like Ober, that approach should pay huge dividends.
Twins: Individual Talent, Team Struggles
Minnesota has Byron Buxton (.274, 31 HRs, 76 RBIs) and some other decent pieces, but they’re a fundamentally flawed team that can’t score runs consistently. Ranking 25th in runs per game (4.2) with a .240 team batting average tells the story of a lineup with serious holes.
Their pitching hasn’t been much better, ranking 25th in team ERA (4.61). When you can’t pitch or hit consistently, you’re vulnerable to teams like us that do both reasonably well.
Why Sunday Afternoon Favors the Road Team
Here’s what should excite every D-backs fan: we’re 31-33 as underdogs this season (48.4% win rate), but more importantly, we’re 21-17 when getting +110 or better odds. That 55.3% win rate when we’re supposed to lose shows this team has character and fight.
Meanwhile, the Twins are just 39-46 when favored (45.9% win rate) and 25-24 at odds similar to today (51%). Those numbers suggest a team that struggles to meet expectations when pressure mounts.
Target Field: Neutral Ground
Target Field doesn’t significantly favor hitters or pitchers, which should benefit the team with superior offensive talent. Our power numbers suggest we can take advantage of any mistakes Ober makes, while Crismatt just needs to keep us competitive through the middle innings.
Series Context and Momentum
Splitting the first two games of this series proves we can compete with anybody when we’re locked in. Taking the series finale on the road would be a statement win heading into the final weeks of the season.
While neither team is making the playoffs, there’s something to be said for finishing strong and building confidence. A series victory in Minnesota would cap off what’s been a competitive season for us.
Keys to Series Victory
- Attack Ober immediately – His 5.08 ERA screams vulnerability from pitch one
- Carroll creates havoc – Our speed-power combo needs to set the tone
- Crismatt stays aggressive – Attack the zone and trust our defense
- Capitalize on their bullpen – Minnesota’s relief corps has been inconsistent
The Total Run Situation
The over/under is set at 9 runs, and with our explosive offense facing Minnesota’s shaky pitching, that number feels achievable. We’ve gone over the total in 71 of 148 games this season, while the Twins have gone over in 69 of 147 opportunities.
Both teams can score when things are clicking, and Sunday afternoon baseball tends to be more offensive-friendly than night games.
Final Prediction from the Desert
This series finale comes down to offensive firepower versus home field advantage, and we’ll take our lineup in that battle every time. Ober’s struggles all season set up perfectly for our patient, disciplined approach at the plate.
Getting +110 with the 5th-ranked offense against the 25th-ranked offense feels like the books are giving us free money. Sometimes baseball is that straightforward – the team that scores more runs usually wins, and we score a lot more runs than Minnesota.
Predicted Final: Diamondbacks 8, Twins 5
Best Bet: D-backs moneyline +110
Value Play: Over 9 runs
Series Winner: Arizona takes 2 of 3
Sedona Red Rising! Time to show Minnesota what desert power looks like in a series decider. Our offense has been elite all season – let’s prove it when the series is on the line. Go D-backs!
