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Not all states carry the same weight in determining the US presidential election, with their relative importance determined by a combination of their number of available Electoral College votes and historical leanings.
Where some states have tended to firmly stick to one of the two major parties, others have a history of shifting their support over different elections. These so-called ‘swing’ states are considered particularly important during election campaigning, with candidates tending to focus a lot of their time and attention on these particular states.
Which way certain states go could tip the balance in a narrow race, and predictions for their potential votes can shift the US election betting odds. So, here are some of the most important states to watch ahead of election day.
Florida
Florida is consistently considered one of the most important swing states in presidential elections and has a history of close votes. In the 2024 election the state has 30 electoral votes, giving it the third largest share of electors in the Electoral College behind California and Texas.
Naturally, this makes the state a priority for candidates as it has a large enough base to potentially shift the overall outcome of the election.
Another factor is the highly diverse voter makeup of Florida, with communities of older retirees in the north contrasting against younger, ethnically diverse populations found in the south of the state.
Pennsylvania
Another large swing state is Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes in the 2024 election. This gives it a definite weight in the Electoral College that the presidential candidates must take into account.
Part of the Rust Belt, Pennsylvania has a mix of urban and rural areas that replicate wider voter divisions of the US. While its two largest cities – Philadelphia and Pittsburgh – often lean Democrat, the more rural tracts of the state lean more towards the Republicans.
Its narrow margins in recent elections make the state an obvious area of focus for 2024.
Michigan
Another of the Rust Belt states, Michigan, has gained importance over the last few presidential elections. After a long streak of voting Democrat, the state unexpectedly flipped to Republican in 2016, only to swing back in 2020.
With 15 electoral votes to offer, Michigan is a clear target for both parties as it has the potential to go either way once again.
Arizona
Recent elections have seen Arizona emerge as another key swing state. A traditional southern Republican stronghold, the state has become more competitive as its population has diversified in recent years.
While Arizona has a smaller number of electoral votes compared to some of the other major swing states – with only 11 – it is still a focal point for the election.
Georgia
Also newer to the category of swing states, Georgia gave pundits a shock in 2020 when it voted Democrat for the first time in almost 30 years. With a sizable 16 electoral votes, the direction of the state’s vote has the potential to move the needle once again, depending on which way it leans.
The state has also gained importance in the realm of Senate elections, meaning that Georgia will remain one to watch even after the 2024 US election concludes.
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Shifting voter sentiment in key swing states could be a major factor in deciding the outcome of the presidential election. Keep an eye on these five states as election day approaches and political campaigning continues to intensify.