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The Detroit Tigers (85–67) host the Cleveland Guardians (80–71) Thursday afternoon in a pivotal divisional matchup at Comerica Park. First pitch is set for 1:10 p.m. ET, and the game marks the final contest in a three-game set between two teams with postseason aspirations. Detroit enters as a strong -211 favorite, while Cleveland looks to extend its six-game win streak as a +175 underdog.
Game Details
- Date: Thursday, September 18, 2025
- Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
- Location: Comerica Park, Detroit
- TV Coverage: FDSDET, CLEG
- Betting Lines: Tigers -211, Guardians +175
- Run Total: 7 runs
- Spread: Tigers -1.5 (+106)
Pitching Matchup: Tarik Skubal vs. Tanner Bibee
Tarik Skubal Anchors Detroit’s Rotation
Detroit sends Tarik Skubal to the mound for his 30th start of the season. The left-hander has been dominant, posting a 13–5 record, 2.26 ERA, and 224 strikeouts over 183⅓ innings. Skubal ranks among the league’s elite in ERA (2nd), WHIP (0.86, 1st), and K/9 (11.0, 3rd).
He’s been especially effective against Cleveland, tossing 16 scoreless innings with 23 strikeouts and just five hits allowed across previous meetings this season. His mix of high-velocity fastballs and off-speed pitches has neutralized the Guardians’ contact-heavy approach.
Tanner Bibee Looks to Keep Guardians Rolling
Cleveland counters with Tanner Bibee, who enters with a 10–11 record, 4.44 ERA, and 149 strikeouts. Bibee’s pitch arsenal includes a four-seam fastball, cutter, sweeper, and sinker, making him a versatile but inconsistent presence on the mound.
While Bibee has shown flashes of brilliance, his .262 opponent batting average and 1.24 WHIP suggest vulnerability against power-hitting teams like Detroit. The Tigers project a .255 expected batting average (xBA) against Bibee’s pitch mix, with several hitters showing favorable matchups.
Tigers Offense: Balanced and Dangerous
Riley Greene Powers the Lineup
Riley Greene leads Detroit in nearly every offensive category: 34 home runs, 108 RBIs, and a .263 batting average. He ranks 10th in MLB in homers and 5th in RBIs, making him a consistent run producer.
Supporting Cast Adds Depth
- Spencer Torkelson: .240 AVG, 29 HR, 26 doubles
- Gleyber Torres: .252 AVG, 16 HR, 82 walks
- Zach McKinstry: .259 AVG, 11 triples, 11 HR
Detroit ranks 9th in MLB in total runs scored (734) and 10th in home runs (190). Their .420 team slugging percentage and .318 OBP place them in the top half of the league offensively.
Guardians Offense: Contact Over Power
José Ramírez Remains the Catalyst
José Ramírez continues to anchor Cleveland’s lineup with 28 home runs, 78 RBIs, and a .281 batting average. He’s projected to hit .285 against Skubal, making him the Guardians’ best chance to break through.
Kwan and Manzardo Provide Support
- Steven Kwan: .275 AVG, 27 doubles, 10 HR
- Kyle Manzardo: .241 AVG, 26 HR, 17 doubles
- Angel Martinez: .230 AVG, 11 HR
Despite recent success, Cleveland ranks 27th in runs scored (587) and 29th in slugging percentage (.372). Their .226 team batting average is among the lowest in the majors.
Recent Form and Trends
Tigers: Inconsistent but Dangerous
Detroit is 4–6 over their last 10 games, with a .215 team batting average and 4.10 ERA. They’ve gone over the run total in 7 of their last 10 games, suggesting offensive volatility.
Guardians: Red-Hot and Surging
Cleveland is 9–1 in their last 10, outscoring opponents by 24 runs and posting a 1.48 team ERA. They’ve won each of their last three games as underdogs, defying betting expectations.
Betting Insights and Injury Report
Betting Trends
- Tigers are 13–3 when favored by -211 or more
- Guardians are 0–6 when listed as +175 or worse
- Over has hit in 80 of 151 Tigers games this season
- Guardians have covered the spread in 8 of their last 10
Key Injuries
Tigers: Missing several arms including Paul Sewald, Reese Olson, and Jason Foley (all on 60-day IL)
Guardians: Lane Thomas, Will Brennan, and John Means remain sidelined
Prediction: Tigers Have the Edge, But Don’t Count Out Cleveland
Final Score Prediction: Tigers 5, Guardians 3
Total Prediction: Over 7 runs
Detroit holds the edge in pitching, power, and run production. Skubal’s dominance against Cleveland and his elite metrics make him the clear X-factor. However, the Guardians’ recent surge and ability to win as underdogs inject uncertainty into the matchup.
If Bibee can limit damage early and Ramírez delivers, Cleveland could keep this close. But Detroit’s lineup depth and Skubal’s consistency should be enough to secure the win and push the total over.
