Rating the Chances of Dan Skelton’s Big Race Entries at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival

After being embarrassingly beaten by the Irish in the Prestbury Cup last year, losing 23-5, British jump racing is desperate for someone to step up to the mark at the 2022 renewal of the Cheltenham Festival. The likes of Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls seem like the more obvious contenders to help spare some blushes, but it could, in fact, be Dan Skelton that paves the way for the hosts.

The 36-year-old has just four Festival winners to his name, three of which have come in the less esteemed Grade 3 County Handicap Hurdle. But while he has fired blanks at Prestbury Park since 2019, he has a great contingent of horses lined up ahead of the four-day meeting next month and he is certainly feeling confident as the anticipation for Cheltenham begins to build. 

“To have real contenders in an Arkle, a Gold Cup, a Champion Chase, a Ryanair Chase and a Mares’ Hurdle, as well as a few right up there in the betting for the handicaps, is a good place to find yourself in, and it looks as though we’ve got a nice spread across the four days,” Skelton said

We witnessed Henry de Bromhead cause a stir last year, as the Irish trainer landed an impressive six victories, and with the unpredictability of the Festival, you just never know what’s going to happen. 

So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at Skelton’s big race entries and see if they can spring a few surprises on the more favoured horses — you might even want to use your Cheltenham sign up offer on one! Read on to find out more.

The Arkle – Third Time Lucki

The ante-post Arkle Challenge Trophy market is dominated by horses from Willie Mullins’ feared Closutton yard, but Skelton’s Third Time Lucki has boasted the kind of form this season that could make him a real contender in the two-mile race. Three wins from five races, two of which came at Cheltenham earlier this season — including in the Grade 2 November Novices’ Chase — and two placings is certainly promising. Does he have the ability to beat the likes of Edwardstone and Blue Lord though? Arguably not, but he could be worth an each-way bet at 12/1.

Rating: 6/10 – The favourites should have too much for him, but could place.

Champion Chase – Nube Negra

Just half-a-length separated Nube Negra and Put The Kettle On in last year’s Champion Chase, with the Spanish-bred horse coming up just short against de Bromhead’s eventual winner. He was then third to Chacun Pour Soi in the Punchestown Champion Chase to round off last season, but he started this campaign well back in November — winning the Grade 2 Cheltenham Chase at the November Meeting. A fourth-place finish has since followed in the Betfair Tingle Creek and it seems incredibly unlikely that he’ll get anywhere close to Shishkin, Energumene or even Chacun Pour Soi in the Queen Mother. 

Rating: 3/10 – Stands no chance against far better horses.

Ryanair Chase – Shan Blue

Pundits and punters alike have been screaming out for some competition for Allaho in the Ryanair Chase, as the Mullins-trained horse looks set to ease his way to successive Festival Trophies. But will Skelton’s Shan Blue really be the horse to push the defending champion to his limits? Possibly, but only because it’s looking like an incredibly lacklustre card. A Grade 1 winner in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase on Boxing Day 2020, the eight-year-old hasn’t hit those heights since, failing to win in his four subsequent contests— including a fall in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase, his sole run this season.

Rating: 4/10 – Won’t get close to Allaho, but could place if Harry Skelton can stay in the saddle.

Gold Cup – Protektorat 

This year’s Festival will mark four years since the last time a British-trained horse won the Gold Cup, with Native River landing the Blue Riband event for Colin Tizzard in 2018, and Skelton’s Protektorat currently stands as their best chance of ending that drought ahead of the 2022 renewal. The seven-year-old is currently on a run of 11221-21, which is certainly the kind of form that could see him land the Gold Cup and a 25-length victory over the aforementioned Native River in the Grade 2 Many Clouds Chase at Aintree last time out will give Skelton confidence heading into the meeting.

Rating: 7/10 – Looking at the form cards, this could be a wide-open Gold Cup, so there’s no reason why Protektorat can’t nab a victory from 9/1!