Table of Contents
Both the New York Giants (0-1) and Dallas Cowboys (0-1) are looking to avoid an 0-2 start when they clash in Week 2 at AT&T Stadium. Despite the Cowboys being heavy favorites, this NFC East rivalry game has all the ingredients for an upset that could shake up the early season narrative.
Game Details and Viewing Information
When: Sunday, September 14, 2025 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
TV: FOX Network
Weather: 87°F dome conditions (no weather impact)
Betting Lines and Market Analysis
The sportsbooks heavily favor Dallas at home:
- Point Spread: Cowboys -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Cowboys -245, Giants +200
- Total Points: 44.5 (Over/Under -110)
The 5.5-point spread opened at 6 points, indicating some early money came in on the Giants. With 66% of bets but 92% of money on Dallas to cover, there’s clear sharp money supporting the Cowboys while the public backs New York.
Why the Giants Could Cover
Defensive Potential: New York’s defense showed flashes against Washington, generating three sacks on Jayden Daniels and ranking 2nd in early defensive DVOA metrics. Their run defense particularly stands out, ranking 1st in defensive rushing DVOA after one game.
The Giants’ Week 1 loss to Washington was closer than the final score suggested. They stayed competitive throughout and created multiple scoring opportunities that went unrealized. Against a Cowboys offense that struggled to establish consistent rhythm against Philadelphia, this defense could be the difference-maker.
Cowboys Offensive Concerns
Running Game Questions: Despite Javonte Williams scoring two touchdowns against Philadelphia, he managed just 54 yards on 15 carries (3.6 YPC). The rushing attack may not be as improved as the touchdown numbers suggest.
Dak Prescott showed his typical inconsistencies in Week 1, often putting receivers in contested-catch situations that could lead to turnovers. Against a Giants defense that forced three sacks and showed aggressive pass rush capabilities, those risky throws could prove costly.
DVOA Statistical Comparison
| Category | Giants Rank | Cowboys Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Pass Offense | 29th | 18th |
| Rush Offense | 29th | 3rd |
| Pass Defense | 12th | 7th |
| Rush Defense | 1st | 6th |
While Dallas holds advantages in offensive categories, the Giants’ defensive rankings suggest they could neutralize the Cowboys’ strengths, particularly in run defense where they rank 1st compared to Dallas’s 6th.
Historical Context and Trends
Road underdogs in Week 2 coming off double-digit losses have historically covered at a 65% rate over the past 20 seasons. The Giants fit this profile perfectly, making them an attractive contrarian play against the heavily-backed Cowboys.
The betting public is overwhelmingly on Dallas (97% of moneyline bets), creating a classic fade-the-public scenario where the contrarian side often provides value.
Quarterback Situation Analysis
Russell Wilson’s struggles in Week 1 have led to speculation about potential changes at quarterback. If head coach Brian Daboll decides to make a switch to Jaxson Dart, it could provide an unexpected spark that catches Dallas off guard.
Even if Wilson starts, the threat of a quarterback change might force the Giants to simplify their offensive approach, potentially leading to more efficient execution.
Key Matchup: Giants Run Defense vs Cowboys Ground Game
The most critical battle will be New York’s top-ranked run defense against Dallas’s 3rd-ranked rushing offense. If the Giants can neutralize the Cowboys’ running game and force Prescott into obvious passing situations, their pass rush advantage becomes magnified.
Injury Report Impact
Giants: T Thomas (doubtful – foot), WR Robinson (questionable – ankle)
Cowboys: DT Winfrey (out – back), WR Mingo (out – knee)
Neither team faces significant injury concerns that would dramatically alter the game plan or expected performance levels.
Betting Strategy and Value Analysis
The market appears to be overreacting to Dallas’s competitive showing against Philadelphia while undervaluing New York’s defensive potential. The Eagles’ vulnerability that the Cowboys exploited may not translate to success against a different defensive scheme.
With 92% of money on the Cowboys spread, there’s clear sharp money supporting Dallas, but the historical trends and matchup analysis suggest the Giants offer better value.
Final Analysis and Prediction
This game hinges on whether the Giants’ defense can build on their Week 1 performance against a Cowboys offense that may not be as improved as their Eagles showing suggested. New York’s defensive rankings in key categories give them a legitimate path to keeping this game competitive.
While Dallas should be favored at home, the 5.5-point spread appears inflated given the Giants’ defensive capabilities and historical trends favoring road underdogs in this situation.
Predicted Final: Cowboys 21, Giants 18
Best Bet: Giants +5.5 (-110)
Lean: Under 44.5 points
Avoid: Cowboys moneyline (poor value at -245)
The Giants’ defense provides enough reason to believe they can keep this game within a touchdown. In a rivalry game where both teams are desperate to avoid 0-2, expect a closer contest than the betting market suggests.