Games of Fortune: Is Luck Really That Important Or Is It All About Accurate Calculation?

If you are a casino game of any stripe, you might have wondered about the question before. Is Luck really that important, or is it all about accurate calculation? 

It’s a great question, especially if you are playing at a casino online. After all, everything that happens can be calculated mathematically, right? Well, the mathematical calculation does play a part. But so does luck! Curious? Keep reading on to learn the thoughts of our gambling analyst.

Gambling and its Relationship with Luck

Originally, the whole concept of gambling was about luck. Historically, people would gamble on things they could not control. For example, people can’t control how a pair of die fell. So, they felt comfortable rolling the die and betting on the outcome.

It’s not just historical – you can see this in a game of Craps or Sic Bo, which are played with dice.

A lot of sports betting also revolved around this kind of luck. For example, take Horse Racing. It is impossible to precisely calculate exactly which horse will win before the race has started. 

While a bettor can look at the statistics and history to see which horse is generally the fastest, the gap between the top horse and the next two or three will be very small.

Add to that are weather conditions. Some horses might be better suited to deal with the day’s humidity and sunlight, while others might be affected and so run slower. Some horses might have had a lighter meal the previous night, while others who ate a lot might be sluggish. 

Not to mention, the jockey’s condition also affects things!

When one puts together all these disparate factors, one fact stands out: it is nearly impossible to accurately predict the winner. That is why people gamble on horse races – it is mostly random.

But not every game at an online casino is like dice or horse racing, right?

Are Card Games like Poker related to Luck?

What about card games? Card games do have some structure, so it is possible for them to not be so overtly affected by luck. However, there is still a lot of chance involved whenever a player does not know the next card. 

So, is it a matter of luck or is accurate calculation more important?

Let’s consider Blackjack. If you are familiar with the game, then you know how you lose if you get over 21 or less than what your opponent got. How does accurate calculation factor in?

The game is usually played with a single deck of 52 cards. Sometimes, it will be more – 2 or 4 or 6 decks in the case of a large table. Each card number has 4 different versions. So, there are four cards of 2, four cards of 3, etc.

Suppose you have 10 and 3 in your hand. Your total is 13. That means that you need to get 8 to get 21. If you get a 9 or above, you will bust.

In this case, the odds are quite good. Out of the approximately 48 cards in the deck, 19 cards will cause you to lose. The rest of the cards will help you win. If you get a 6, 7, or 8, you will have a good chance of winning – that’s 12 cards out of the 48.

So, you decide to Hit. This is a matter of using accurate mathematical calculations to make your decision rather than relying on blind luck.

But let’s consider the next step. You Hit and get another card. This is a 4.

Now, you have 17 total in your hand. This is a bad position since the dealer will also have a minimum of 17. If the dealer has a higher value, you will lose. But if you Hit again, the odds of Busting are higher than 50%. 

As you can see, now all you have is your luck which will decide if you will bust or not.

Blackjack is considered to be one of the most mathematical games at a casino. When played by an expert player, the RTP of this game is 99.6% – the highest at any casino. But the less experienced you are, the worse the RTP gets.

What about Slots? Can you calculate them?

Slots are among the most popular titles at the casino. But they are also one of the least predictable.

In a slot game, there is simply no way to calculate your odds of winning. The best you can do is keep spinning until you get some kind of bonus. That is why slot games are so popular as games of fortune. 

With slots, you don’t have to be concerned about trying to make accurate calculations and getting the best result possible. Rest your mind at ease and start spinning!

The discussion above regarding slot games clearly proves that there is no such thing as accurate calculation. Sometimes luck is all you need to have a good time and win some sweet cash!


As it turns out, the difference between luck and calculation is just a matter of the game. Some games, like Slots and Dice, are very dependent on luck. There’s no real way to calculate their outcome. 

Roulette, one of the most famous table games, also has a similar case. In these games, you have to hedge your bets and hope for the best instead.

Other games, like Blackjack or Baccarat, and even Poker, have a bigger skill factor. While the outcome of the game is not decided by the player’s skill, it does increase their odds of winning and prevent them from taking a huge loss. 

So, if you are going to play these games, better brush up on your abilities and strategies!

About the Author:

Khrystyna Przybylo is an analyst with several years of experience in the online gambling industry and a knack for putting the right numbers alongside the right words.

Photo by Adi Coco on Unsplash

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