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A trait that commonly trips people up when making sports bets, is an overconfidence in their own abilities. Due to this brazen self-assuredness, overconfident bettors can come up with reasons that belie what the stats are telling them about what a likely outcome is going to be. Because of that belief that they know better than anyone else, people like this typically take on bolder, riskier bets.
While betting is a form of entertainment, most punters put in the work before placing a stake. They check out the operators, for example, explore this betting section on Legalbet, where experts review and compare different bookmakers. This can help bettors to find a suitable, licensed sportsbook. Then, they analyse the event itself – stats, player motivation, and other key factors.
It’s also important to play responsibly when betting. For example, confidence can be useful, but only when balanced with logic and discipline. A common example is found in accumulator bets, where suddenly an 8-fold football multi-bet seems like a completely viable option. Emotional betting raises a lot of red flags in terms of accuracy, and machismo, which is tied into the classic image of being a “tough guy” sometimes has a big role in that.
What is Machismo?
Machismo is a term that most people will know and it’s essentially a mindset about what it means to be a man. “Manly” traits such as bravery, leadership and confidence fall into the machismo mix, as well as the outdated, misogynistic belief that men make better decisions than women.
Although the term itself comes from Latin America, this hypermasculinity exists across the world. Courage, confidence, self-belief and resilience are not necessarily bad things, of course, but letting them spiral out of control to where they tip over into aggression and cloud decision-making, can quickly turn them from being healthy expressions of identity.
Overconfidence in Betting
Having an inflated belief in the ability to make accurate predictions is where many bettors with machismo can fall flat. This is simply a cognitive bias where the overconfidence overpowers the ability to look at things objectively.
The machismo mindset that a person can, without fail, make great decisions, means that any evidence that is contradictory to what they have decided, is something that can’t be processed due to the bias.
Within this overconfidence, punters typically underestimate what role chance plays in the outcomes of sports. A simple example is that a bettor may put a great deal of stock into what has been a sequence of home wins for a particular team in a head-to-head record.
But their heavy bias won’t let them see that of the two teams in question, the home team is currently out of form, while the visitors are in red-hot scoring form. Any contradictory evidence like that will be crushed by machismo.
Other Areas Where Machismo Can Be a Hindrance
Another big area where machismo manifests itself is when larger stakes are played on bets. There’s very often little caution in play when this really strong male energy enters the chat, as again, it’s usually all about being brash and showing a form of aggressive control over a situation.
So sizing up cautious bets isn’t an option because that is a challenging behaviour to their boldness. But not only can machismo lead to the placing of bolder bets, really pushing the boundaries of a budget, but the nature of the bets themselves tend not to be safer ones.
Riskier bets, like backing big underdogs, tackling volatile markets like the correct score in a football match, or placing large accumulators are hallmarks of machismo-based betting. But even though this is often fraught with an abundance of losses, even that may not be on the radar of an overconfident bettor.
Downplaying Losses
If there is a question of why overconfident players keep on repeating unfavourable betting practices, then it’s because of selective memory. Someone with an abundance of machismo is more likely to minimise the impact of losses and push them down into a deep part of their brain.
That’s because a person who’s hyper-confident in their abilities will have very little in the way of acknowledging any kind of vulnerability, which betting losses are. What they will remember, instead, is that one occasion where a big, risky bet did pay off.
Due to selective memory, it is that which will drive their future behaviour, with the overconfident belief and assuredness that it will happen again. It’s a stubborn attachment to a false narrative.
The Challenges
Machismo can hurt betting because it is intrinsically intertwined with overconfidence. That just gives a very clouded and somewhat unrealistic view of betting, which is the reverse of what is required.
A conscious effort to dial back on the overbearing male energy and bring a bit of self-awareness into the picture can be a step in the right direction to overcome the cognitive bias, as well as embracing vulnerability and being realistic about the risks and failures of betting.