Depending on where you live in the world, the chances of snowfall of any quantity landing on Christmas day range from absolute zero, like the Dry Valleys of Antarctica, where it hasn’t snowed for two million years, to a guarantee. In Chicago, the city usually sees upwards of 36in of snow each winter – but is the white stuff likely to come down over the festive season in 2021?
One Inch of Snow
A White Christmas – capitalized – began as something of a normal conversation piece and has expanded to become one of the many semi-serious markets that bookmakers take bets on. These range from WWE matches and the no. 1 Christmas song to the outcome of TV shows. In the latter case, the British bookie Betfair currently has odds on Strictly 2021, which, according to the latest Strictly Come Dancing news, seems to be a bit of a one-horse race.
These alternative betting markets can add a little excitement to a sometimes mundane occurrence, especially as they can be a little more complex than it might first seem. With White Christmas markets, a question needs to be answered first, namely, what is one? Believe it or not, it’s a remarkably common thought among meteorologists.
In the United States, a White Christmas is called when at least one inch of snow rests on the ground on the morning of December 25. This is a different definition to the one in use in the UK (for example), which only requires snow to be observed falling – in any amount.
Of course, Chicago is at the mercy of the elements in winter. In early 2021, NBC Chicago reported that 36.2in of snow fell in 22 days. That’s an entire winter’s worth in less than a month. As the season progressed, averages were pushed higher and records came close to being broken. Blame it on what you will – global warming, solar flares, or that squirrel from Ice Age – but there’s no hiding the fact that Chicago seems to be getting snowier.
Northern Illinois
The year 1950 had the heaviest snowfall on Christmas Day, at 5.1in. White Christmases with in excess of 2in of snow also happened at the beginning of the 20th century, in 1903 and 1909, and before the Second World War, in 1933 and 1935. Closer to the present, festive snow has fallen in 1951, 1965, and 2002. The Chicago Tribute notes that there was a 37% chance of snow on December 25, 2020.
It was actually quite warm for the time of year.
The Windy City hasn’t had much luck with White Christmases recently. The years 2013, 2016, and 2017 all had some snow on the ground but there hasn’t been any seasonal weather at Christmas since. However, the Illinois State Water Survey notes that the chance of a White Christmas varies depending on which part of Illinois is measured. Northern Illinois is the snowiest area, with a 40-50% chance of a White Christmas. The intersection of Lake, McHenry, Kane, and Cook counties gets the most snow in Illinois.
So, what’s the verdict? As mentioned, it’s all a question of location but, as the worst of the weather has fallen in January and February in recent years, it’s a fair bet that most Chicagoans might go wanting for snow in 2021, as well.